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Technology Stocks : Advanced Micro Devices - Moderated (AMD) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Joe NYC who wrote (138044)	10/28/2004 10:21:32 PM
From: TGPTNDR	Respond to of 275872

Joe, Re: Before it would make sense to fab outside, AMD needs to sell out Dresden facility, but we are not there yet. The earliest possible date for start of this type of venture would be wafer starts starting in May 2005, wafer outs in August 2005, I think you're a quarter late, at least, but I've been known to be over optimistic. From my perspective, and I'll admit to having an extreme one, AMD may well want to build inventory in Q4. I don't think they can, but... This candle is lit. Given no Macro Economic Faux Pas(Rink, did I do that right?) I'm thinking 300% earnings 2005 minimum vs 2004. Sky's the limit upside. Those chips have to be going into the fabs NOW. -tgp

To: Joe NYC who wrote (138044)	10/29/2004 1:15:49 AM
From: KeithDust2000	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 275872

Joe, and AMD is not really gaining unit marketshare at all. 0.4% in Q3, even less than in Q2, IIRC, and they are still below 16%, where they have been for the last three quarters! And with sales being still roughly 75% K7 this quarter (sigh!), it´s not hard to see why they won´t jump to 20% anytime soon. Not that 20% would be a problem for the current fab. I´m looking for socket wins, new OEMs coming on board, others significantly extending their line-ups...but it´s just not happening, at least not yet. Small wonder, K7 won´t do it. Prescott, P-M and Xeon seem just fine for now for 82% of the market.