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Strategies & Market Trends : Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Crimson Ghost who wrote (14278)	10/29/2004 4:35:10 AM
From: zonder	Read Replies (9) \| Respond to of 116555

"Most people expect X, so the outcome should be -X" is a line of reasoning I cannot really understand. Surely, majority can be wrong. But majority can also be right. Assigning probabilities to these two outcomes, (especially to the point of declaring majority is almost always wrong), seems to me a mammoth task of statistical analysis on zillions of historical events on which no majority polling can even be found. Besides, if the majority is always wrong, that means the markets are always wrong, which means you should always make money by betting against the markets. That, unfortunately, is not the case.

To: Crimson Ghost who wrote (14278)	10/29/2004 9:14:58 AM
From: SouthFloridaGuy	Respond to of 116555

We saw a correction like this in the summer and it was indeed short-lived. The underlying stocks, normally forward looking indicators for the commodity have stayed strong. I don't know Heinz's ultimate target on oil, but I think it goes a lot higher - perhaps into the $70's. Then we'll get the "crash". In my mind, that will be the catalyst for the subsequent deflation many on this board have espoused. I also expect gold and silver to make even bigger moves given they have lagged thus far.

To: Crimson Ghost who wrote (14278)	10/29/2004 9:21:36 AM
From: ild	Respond to of 116555

Well, he didn't say oil must continue going up. He in fact said the short term correction was probable. Message 20689660 EDIT: What I know is that this year many both bulls and bears have lost money. I agree with this: Message 20701842