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Strategies & Market Trends : The Epic American Credit and Bond Bubble Laboratory -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: mishedlo who wrote (20989)	10/29/2004 2:49:59 PM
From: ild	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 110194

Mish, good post. <<<measly 3/4 hike >>> BTW, car loan rates rose in August to the highest levels in 2 years. idorfman.com EDIT: Dec oil at $51.75

To: mishedlo who wrote (20989)	10/29/2004 2:58:06 PM
From: russwinter	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 110194

Ultimately I don't disagree with your last paragraph at all. We are talking about the economy right? That is totally distinct though from your next leap that says all that's somehow deflationary. I see the outcome as all together different, a bad economy translates into loss of confidence in the USD, a bond rout, panic into other forms of money or value, potential Crack-Up boom. But then we've had this circular conversation before? <there will not be mammoth stimulus applied to win it next year. > This is what I would call an interesting proposition. Not sure if I completely know (although I strongly suspect) the answer, but interesting and bears watching. As I've said, I'm into MoP actions, not words though. If I saw a period after the election where the CBs backed away from the mindless, endless monetizing and money printing going on now, I'd have to back away from flucht in die sachwerte trades to a degree. But I'll tell you, an occasion "measured" 25 bps rate increase out of the US and China ain't it, it's just a fly in the ointment. Instead I'm glued to permanent and temporary injections (daily), foreign custody holdings (reported Thurs), fed debt monetizations (Thurs), monthly foreign flows, money rates and spreads, all the indicators of too loose money and a severely maladjusted economy. Show me the money. MoP talk, words, bluster and Fed moral hazard road shows ain't it either, even if somehow they still have "cry wolf" credibility to impact markets. I mean how many more times can small actions and words bluff specs out of scarce copper, or oil? We may see a test of this bluffing coming in the glutted and oversupplied USDs? I suspect it will work about as long as it worked for copper recently. A PIA and another entry point. I'm never sure what the exact set-up will be, and in fact it's usually something even stupidier than I would have thought, but maybe this is one, combined with MoP "word change" on Nov. 10th, or a bogus employment report on the 5th?: yahoo.reuters.com