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Technology Stocks : Advanced Micro Devices - Moderated (AMD) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: THE WATSONYOUTH who wrote (138278)	10/30/2004 7:32:35 PM
From: TGPTNDR	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 275872

TWy, Re: <I guess my point was not clear. AMD certainly has an opportunity to sell several million more chips per quarter since their move to 90nm will support it.> Ok, here we go again with one of my more flamboyant posts. I believe AMD has over 6M 32Bit CPUs sitting on wafer of which 50+ could bin at 3000+. I believe that by summer next those chips will be gone. I believe 90Nm transition is OK. I believe 64 bit transition is reasonable -- or better even -- without Win64. I believe AMD is downbinning and, maybe, downpackaging chips. 2M more chips in Q1 next year than in Q3 this year? I think they should, but I'm still weak on volume VS price. Socket wins can be hard. We shall see. -tgp

To: THE WATSONYOUTH who wrote (138278)	10/31/2004 5:50:57 PM
From: KeithDust2000	Read Replies (4) \| Respond to of 275872

TWY, on the other hand, it would be very important to be prepared for eventualities. Let´s say dual-core Opteron becomes an instant hit (more than 200sqmm), dual-core desktop chips take off (dual-core A64 more than 150 sqmm), there have been rumours about AMD moving to bigger cache sizes, and at the same time, AMD has said that the conversion to 90nm at Fab30 is only scheduled to be "more or less" completed in Q4 next year - I have a feeling that 90nm K8 capacity could very well be tight at AMD next year. I think it would be great if AMD was in a position to say to OEMs that they can fulfill every order, thanks to IBM supplying additional parts - and a second source would also give OEMs more confidence to move a bigger part of their line-up to AMD. I think 2005 could be THE year for AMD to gain significant market share, to get out of the virtual irrelevance they currently exist in (with INTEL having roughly 93% server, 90% mobile, 82% overall market share). But not with Fab30 alone, imho. The capacity and credibility for large scale K8 deals would just not be there. They could miss the opportunity of a lifetime. And who knows how long it will really take Fab36 to produce 90nm/65nm single/dual core chips in large quantities on 300mm wafers. Could very well be 2H06/1H07. Who knows what INTEL will have by that time. P.S. And thanks DRBES!