Kerry edges ahead in Iowa with boost from early voters
Undecideds still hold key position in election
By JONATHAN ROOS
REGISTER STAFF WRITER
Copyright 2004, Des Moines Register and Tribune Company
October 30, 2004
Sen. John Kerry has taken a slender lead over President Bush in Iowa as the 2004 presidential race nears the finish line.
The Des Moines Register's Iowa Poll shows 48 percent of Iowans likely to vote in Tuesday's election, or who have already voted by absentee ballot, support the Democratic candidate and 45 percent back the Republican incumbent. The poll's margin of error is 3.5 percentage points.
Six percent of likely voters remain undecided in the new Iowa Poll. With the race still close, they could play a pivotal role in determining which candidate wins the seven electoral votes from Iowa, viewed as a battleground state that either could carry. In other elections, undecided voters have tended to side with the challenger, which would be good news for Kerry.
Adding another element of suspense are the 5 percent of Bush supporters and the 4 percent of Kerry supporters who say they could still change their minds.
The poll, taken Monday through Friday night, shows the Massachusetts senator has gotten a jump on the president among those Iowans who have cast absentee or early ballots - a major get-out-the-vote strategy of both parties.
Twenty-seven percent of Iowa adults surveyed said they had already voted. Kerry leads Bush, 52 percent to 41 percent, among that group of early-bird voters. Among the 73 percent who said they definitely would vote on Tuesday, Kerry and Bush are tied.
Poll participant William "Bat" Masterson, a retired law enforcement officer from Council Bluffs, said he cast his absentee ballot for Kerry. "I'm hoping that Kerry can settle this thing in Iraq," said Masterson, a 76-year-old Democrat. "Too many innocent people are getting killed. Maybe it wasn't a necessary war."
Bush continues to be dogged by relatively low job approval ratings, which traditionally are a sign of trouble for the incumbent's re-election bid. Among likely voters, 47 percent disapprove of the president's overall job performance, and 45 percent approve.
Another red flag for the president is that a majority of Iowans have taken a pessimistic view of how things are going in the nation: Fifty-five percent say the country has gotten off on the wrong track; 39 percent say it's headed in the right direction.
The poll also contains some encouraging news for Bush. More likely voters regard him as a strong leader and a likable person than they do the Massachusetts senator. Also, more of them think Bush would do a better job than Kerry in handling the anti-terrorism fight and the Iraq situation.
Bush supporter Kaylene Robison, a cable television dispatcher from Des Moines, said her chief concern is the nation's security and she'd feel safer with Bush's continued leadership.
"I feel more secure having President Bush another four years," said Robison, 32, a political independent who voted for Ralph Nader four years ago. While she likes Kerry's positions on health care and abortion, "he just seems to flip back and forth on different issues, and that does concern me."
The Iowa Poll shows just 1 percent of likely voters say they are casting their ballots for independent candidate Nader in Tuesday's election.
Kerry ran more strongly against Bush toward the end of the five-day polling period than he did at the beginning. Bush had to deal with news reports last week concerning missing explosives in Iraq and an FBI probe of Pentagon contracts with Halliburton, Vice President Dick Cheney's former company.
The release Friday of Osama bin Laden's taped message probably came too late in the week to influence the opinions of those polled, said J. Ann Selzer, the Register's pollster.
Both presidential candidates and their running mates campaigned in the state during the last week. The Iowa Poll shows pockets of strength for both candidates:
• Bush and Kerry are running neck and neck among political independents, with each drawing the support of 45 percent among Iowans in this group of swing voters.
• Kerry does a little better than Bush in holding down defections among members of their respective parties. Two percent of likely Democratic voters say they back Bush, while 6 percent of Republicans plan to vote for Kerry.
• There continues to be a gender gap. Bush outshines Kerry among likely male voters, 50 percent to 41 percent. Kerry does better among women, 54 percent to 41 percent.
• Kerry is more appealing to senior citizens, drawing the support of 54 percent among those 65 or older. Bush does better among adults between the ages of 18 and 44, capturing the support of 54 percent in that age group. Those in the middle, ages 45 to 64, lean toward Kerry.
• Bush runs stronger than Kerry in rural and metropolitan areas. Kerry does better than the president in smaller cities and towns.
• Poorer and less educated Iowans tend to favor Kerry; the more affluent lean toward Bush.
DEBATES
The latest Iowa Poll shows Sen. John Kerry helped himself a little more in the televised debates than did President Bush among likely Iowa voters who watched the events. Kerry leads 50 percent to 45 percent among those who tuned in. Bush leads 47 percent to 42 percent among those who didn't.
VIEWERS: The poll shows 83 percent of Iowans likely to vote in Tuesday's presidential election watched or listened to at least one of the prime-time debates.
TV HELPED: "Eighty-seven percent of Kerry supporters say watching the debates made them feel better about their candidate. That compares to 57 percent of Bush supporters saying the same for their candidate," said J. Ann Selzer, The Des Moines Register's pollster.
Four years ago, Democrat Al Gore edged Bush by only 4,144 votes in Iowa. The poll shows one in 10 Bush voters from 2000 is defecting to Kerry. That compares with just 5 percent of Gore supporters who are supporting the president in this election.
Among likely voters this year who declined to vote in 2000 or who were ineligible to do so, a majority back Kerry.
Bush has failed to improve his job approval ratings since the last Iowa Poll was taken in July, when he held a 1 percentage-point lead over Kerry. In the new poll taken last week, slightly more than half disapprove of his handling of the budget and the economy. Fifty percent find fault with the way he has managed the situation in Iraq.
Despite those mediocre marks, Bush remains in the thick of the race in Iowa. The campaign against terrorism continues to be a leading issue for the president, with 49 percent of likely voters saying they trust him to do a better job of handling that issue than Kerry. Forty percent give the nod to Kerry in battling terrorism.
On Iraq, Bush leads Kerry 47 percent to 42 percent as the candidate who likely Iowa voters feel would have the best command of the situation.
"I think Bush is a good man overall, but sometimes he gets sidetracked," said Bush supporter Richard Novak of Altoona, who approves of the job the president has done despite some misgivings. "Getting rid of (former Iraqi leader) Saddam (Hussein) was a good idea, but whatever happened to chasing (al-Qaida leader Osama) bin Laden?" said Novak, 36, a masonry contractor who considers himself a conservative Democrat.
Kerry has the edge on Bush on domestic issues. Likely voters pick him over Bush, 49 percent to 39 percent, as the candidate they trust to do a better job of increasing access to health care. On the economy, the Democratic candidate outpolls the Republican incumbent, 48 percent to 43 percent.
Tosha Titus, a Davenport mother with an infant son, supports Kerry because she believes he would do more to help the poor than Bush has.
The president "is not helping out the poor people. He's just thinking about himself," said Titus, 18, a political independent.
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