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Politics : Foreign Affairs Discussion Group -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Jim Willie CB who wrote (150183)	11/1/2004 10:47:02 AM
From: jlallen	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 281500

this is an excellent sign, since has not happened before they do something weird, since clearly pro-Bushy biased HAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAH What are you smoking....?

To: Jim Willie CB who wrote (150183)	11/1/2004 10:49:37 AM
From: TigerPaw	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 281500

Many polls are just ads using a different technique. The media polls have a bias toward the appearance of a close race. This keeps more viewers tuned in. Kerry has been ahead for weeks, but the polls have used a skewed ratio of Republican/Democrat percentages to weight their poll. They didn't want the race to appear to be a blowout or people wouldn't watch their TV all day. In Texas there seems to be a last minute movement to Badnarik, the libertarian. This is from ex-Bush supporters who don't want to tell their friends that they voted for Kerry. It's ultimately insignificant. TP

To: Jim Willie CB who wrote (150183)	11/1/2004 11:00:40 AM
From: Neocon	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 281500

First, the margin of error applies to the change, not the spread. In other words, on 50- 50, a three percentage points change yields a six percentage point spread, i.e. 53- 47. Second, a lot of polls exceed the plus or minus three percent (it is a function of sample size), sometimes reaching as much as six percent, or yielding a twelve point spread. Third, in any given number of polls, there will be "outliers" which exceed the designated margin of error as mere statistical anomalies. The outliers can be distinguished from true readings ordinarily by their infrequency. Fourth, there are different ways that the various pollsters do things that might or might not be a result of bias, for example, reweighting results for demographic balance, particularly party affiliation, if they think that the sampling was skewed; deciding how to determine "likely voters"; and ways of wording questions that may elicit different responses even though the questions are practically identical.