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Politics : Foreign Affairs Discussion Group -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: TigerPaw who wrote (150186)	11/1/2004 10:57:37 AM
From: Jim Willie CB	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 281500

polling biases that have become apparent in recent weeks cellphone users cannot be polled, and tend to be younger only wireline phones can legally be solicited most newly registered voters are young and minorities (black) they cannot enter into the sampling process so easily younger people move their residences more often theY tend to be missed in the polling a curious couple: fearful of Republican Big Brotherism, respondents might actually tend to say "BUSH" when they intend to privately vote "KERRY" they wonder if the phone is bugged and minor retaliation might follow fearful of their Republican spouses, respondents might actually tend to say "BUSH" when they intend to privately vote "KERRY" they dont want to upset their husbands or wives / jim JW SPONSORED THE CONTENTS OF THIS MESSAGE

To: TigerPaw who wrote (150186)	11/3/2004 10:09:23 PM
From: Bilow	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 281500

Hi Tigerpaw; Re: "The media polls have a bias toward the appearance of a close race. This keeps more viewers tuned in. Kerry has been ahead for weeks, but the polls have used a skewed ratio of Republican/Democrat percentages to weight their poll. They didn't want the race to appear to be a blowout or people wouldn't watch their TV all day. ..." I heard the same thing, or variations, from a lot of liberal friends. Like I've said before, people believe pretty much what they want to believe. They can explain away huge amounts of evidence to the contrary. It was this same very human deficit that explains why Bush went into Iraq in the first place. -- Carl