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Politics : High Tolerance Plasticity -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Sun Tzu who wrote (22196)	11/4/2004 8:58:19 PM
From: Bruce L	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 23153

<<Do you have any predictions/expectations for the next 4 years at home and abroad?>> Sun Tzu: I'm not omniscient... though in my old age I like to think I'm getting smarter at looking into the future. (g) So briefly, this is what I believe. IRAQ & THE MIDDLE EAST I believe with Francis Fukuyama that 'the arrow of history' points clearly towards liberal democracies. Having said that, I recognize that it's not going to be a straight or easy path in the ME. Germany, Japan and Korea had ruling parties that stayed in power for decades without ever losing power; only in the last 10 - 15 years have they become what I would call 'true democracies.' Further, Islam is my least favorite religion; I believe that institutionally it is hostile to the 'give and take' of an open society. But that was true of Far Eastern societies as well; the Confucian tradition was founded upon principles of respect by inferiors towards superiors, reciprocal obligations, etc. That attitude is toxic to a democratic society; but the obstacle has been overcome and the FE is clearly moving in our direction. I think it can happen too in the ME. Given time, the Peoples of that region, if given the democratic framework, will grow into those institutions ....even when they are implanted by us. This gets us to the "war" in Iraq. My brother Ed believes that the opposition is indigenous; but in any event that the U.S. has no "right" to influence events in Iraq, even while every other nation and power in the world does exactly that. I believe OTOH that we have a war of wills - not with the "people" of Iraq - but with "islamo-fascism" which is itself (per Fukuyama) "a desperate backlash against the modern world." In this context, it is not relevent that Iraqis dislike us; it is easy to make too much of the hateful eyes of 12 year old Arab boys! Ideally, I would like to see a strongman such as Kemal Ataturk come (temporarily)to power. I don't know if Allawi is the right man, but he may well be. I believe that gradually Iraq will achieve internal stabilty and deveopments should be favorable from there. THE U.S. ECONOMY With Bush re-elected, I am very optimistic. The problem from 2000 on always was inadequate capital investment. With the tax cuts in place - and probably now to be extended - the economy is starting to take off. Unlike "old Europe" where growth was negative to + 1%, we will grow 3.8% this year vs 4.5% last year. That is truly extraodinary growth for a country as rich and developed as ours already is!! Structurally, the U.S. economy is changing rapidly ...and that always scares the people who are directly effected. But unemployment never got above 6.3% and has been at 5.4% for several months. Ten years ago, economists believed that 5.4% might never again be attained. The supposed job loses always were illusory: our economy is 80% service with only 15% manufacturing. The Payroll Survey measures only the largest (top 150,000) employers and misses two thirds of the American economy including all of the self-employed and small business sectors where ALL of the growth is taking place. I agree with you that the dollar will continue to fall; but as I see it, that is not a bad thing. The value of the dollar relative to other currencies is a self-correcting mechanism; the American consumer cannot expect that the rest of the world will continue to endlessly loan us money to buy their exports. In sum, I am optimistic both as to the economy and foreign affairs. Bruce P.S. I've long been fascinated by the "Warring States era" in the 300 year period before the Chin dynastic unified China in 221 B.C.(the period in which Sun Tzu lived and wrote). Do you know of any good history of that era? As you know, the first emperor burned all history books in private hands. He saved a single copy of each in his capital's library, but these were all lost when his dynasty ended in 205 B.C.