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Politics : Politics for Pros- moderated -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: LindyBill who wrote (84165)	11/5/2004 11:10:31 AM
From: LindyBill	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 793917

BOOKER RISING COMMENTARY: Did Black Voters Help Elect Bush? Yes! But not how you think. Nationally, his increase in black support was only three percentage points (from 8% in 2000 to 11%). In terms of the national popular vote, black voters were marginal for Bush. Hispanic voters - where Bush went from 35% to 44% - were much more influential here. However, state returns in the two biggest battleground states tell a different story. In terms of the electoral vote - especially in Ohio - increased black support for Bush was key. Republicans bought air time on black radio stations in eight or so battleground states, and it paid off in increased black support - despite an historic black voter turnout, which Republicans typically fear. 13% of Florida blacks voted for President George W. Bush, almost double (7%) his support in 2000. This was even though Democratic "527" groups had a massive voter mobilization campaign, and liberals argued incessantly about alleged black voter suppression and the president's "bad" policies for blacks. 16% of Ohio blacks — 90,000 voters — cast their ballots for President George W. Bush, almost double his support (9%) in 2000. Hispanic voters are a marginal portion of the electorate in Ohio. 562,500 black voters in Ohio cast ballots on Tuesday. President George W. Bush's increased black percentage support translated into 50,625 additional black votes for him. Bush won Ohio by 130,566 votes, and there were 135,149 provisional ballots to count. Sen. John Kerry would've needed to win 97% of the provisional ballots to win Ohio. Had Sen. Kerry kept President Bush's black Ohio support to his 2000 figure (9%), the 50,625 votes would've instead been in his column. Bush would've won Ohio by only 79,941 votes and thus Sen. Kerry would've been in a much better position on the provisional ballots front. It still would've been difficult - Kerry would've needed 59% of the provisional ballots to go his way - but doable given that many (if not most) provisional ballots were cast in urban areas. Sen. Kerry's presidential dream was stopped cold...by Ohio's black voters. More analysis forthcoming about other battleground states, when we get our hands on exit poll data. Yet what the preliminary analysis suggests is that when the Republican Party targets black voters in media where they are likely to directly receive the message, it helps boost GOP black support. For future races, the Republican Party may also want to draw upon inroads made with both black Christian conservatives and black secular conservatives (who we note are mostly Democrats, but where there is significant eroded support for the party) for specific message appeals to help it win tight races. bookerrising.blogspot.com

To: LindyBill who wrote (84165)	11/5/2004 6:53:02 PM
From: KLP	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 793917

Glad to see Arizonians passed this....Now hopefully the lawyers won't try to stop it... The group has said it will ask a judge to issue a preliminary injunction against Proposition 200 after the results are certified Nov. 22. The initiative requires Arizonans to prove citizenship when seeking public benefits or when registering to vote. Government employees will have to report to immigration authorities suspected undocumented immigrants seeking public benefits