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To: Ron McKinnon who wrote (52368)11/5/2004 2:53:01 PM
From: Larry S.  Read Replies (3) | Respond to of 53068
 
i met with some people last night, who are quite conservative. the wife said that the reason Kerry lost was Theresa opened her mouth. Laura Bush just waved and smiled. larry



To: Ron McKinnon who wrote (52368)11/5/2004 6:34:13 PM
From: Triffin  Respond to of 53068
 
Tried a CNBC trade today <gg>

Bought some

SNY @ 39
NTMD @ 24

Both way up AH as CNBC has run the
same 'wonder drug' spot several times
today ..

FYI actual data on SNY may be out Tues/Wed ..
for "Accompli" (sp??)

Triff ..



To: Ron McKinnon who wrote (52368)11/6/2004 8:18:40 AM
From: Kelvin Taylor  Respond to of 53068
 
Interesting point Ron. Let's take a closer look to see the details.

There are as many myths as there are facts about stock market performance in election years. One widely held belief is that the stock market does better when the Republican party is in the White House, supposedly because it favors business interests. But, according to the Stock Traders Almanac, over the last century the market has actually done better under the Democrats. I'm using the numbers for the last century only up to 1995 because the huge bull market of the last half of the 1990s under the Democrats, and the severe bear market of 2000-2003 under the Republicans, would skew the numbers too much. Leaving out those last nine years, according to the Stock Traders Almanac, the stock market gained an average of 8.1% per year from 1901 through 1995 when the Republicans were in the White House, and averaged 10.5% when the Democrats were in the White House.

A difference of only 2.4%.

However, there's another side of the coin. Inflation tended to be higher under the Democrats, and lower under the Republicans. So the better stock market performance under the Democrats was offset by a reduction in the purchasing power of the dollar.
Can the stock market possibly predict the outcome of elections? Also according to the Stock Traders Almanac, over the last 60 years nervous or unhappy investors have tended to have the stock market down for the first half of years when the incumbent administration was subsequently ousted in the election, and up in the first half of years when the incumbent party was subsequently re-elected.


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