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Strategies & Market Trends : The Epic American Credit and Bond Bubble Laboratory -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: JBTFD who wrote (21530)	11/8/2004 1:51:51 PM
From: ild	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 110194

<<<when people realize that money is losing value, they will spend money they have as quickly as possible >>> There is an opinion that most people don't have free cash, but rather have debts and assets. So they will just moderate spending. And if assets suddenly stop appreciating it will be a big shocker. Don't forget: We have asset economy now morganstanley.com

To: JBTFD who wrote (21530)	11/8/2004 2:08:55 PM
From: mishedlo	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 110194

The money supply argument guaranteeing price inflation fails the smell test. "All that money has to go somewhere." Where did it go in Japan? I believe the follow charts without a doubt shows that there can be price deflation with monetary inflation economagic.com economagic.com Why does the following guarantee FUTURE price inflation if it did not in Japan? economagic.com or this economagic.com BTW take that M3 chart and just look at the period 1999 to 2004 and tell me what you see. M3 is on the verge of contracting. IMO money supply will contract in a housing slump. Mish

To: JBTFD who wrote (21530)	11/8/2004 6:45:43 PM
From: gregor_us	Respond to of 110194

This is Already Happening. The second factor is that if a time comes when people realize that money is losing value, they will spend money they have as quickly as possible on tangible assets. This to me is the sign that hyperinflation is kicking in. Look at American Real Estate. There's no question the currency has already collpsed against real estate, and that a tremendous amount of the psychological energy driving the market is an intuitive sense that "dollars" should be dumped. Economic behaviour is social science, so "low interest rates" is just one part of the phenomenon, now that the whole process is up and running. The dollar is also collapsing against Oil. (Most Americans don't know that yet, but holders of large piles of Dollars understand it indeed.) LP