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Politics : WAR on Terror. Will it engulf the Entire Middle East? -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Peter Dierks who wrote (7784)	11/9/2004 12:42:47 PM
From: Haim R. Branisteanu	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 32591

I will respond from my hope and speculation and not knowledge. It seems to me that there are many in PA who would like to end the conflict and solve the problems. Few of those appearing on the networks spoke lengthily about a democratic process, rule of law transparency and human rights. Unfortunate I do not understand Arabic and do not know what they told when appearing on the Arab networks. Personally I am optimistic and I was also before and hoped for a resolution. Unfortunate in the past I was disappointed by the events on the gound. Most important is to se WHAT THEY DO and not WHAT THEY TALK. As of today they still engaged in terrorist acts by firing several mortars on schools and houses and kassam rockets into Israel. One important thing to watch is if they spread the word that Arafat was poisoned - and by this justifying revenge - if this element will be strongly denied by the PA there is a positive start. The other positive sign would be if the PA will distribute to the population equally a substantial part of the stash of money Arafat embezeled, to build new micro businesses and schools. The problems are enormous starting from water population growth education and cessation of teaching hatred generating decent work places and employment. So will se it day by day as it evolves - Personally I cross my fingers for success

To: Peter Dierks who wrote (7784)	11/10/2004 9:46:53 AM
From: Scoobah	Respond to of 32591

No, expect the terror to escalate: Enter Jacques Chirac and the billions he has helped steal from arabs everywhere debka.com Chirac Spurns Qureia, Abbas - Throws Support behind Palestinian Radicals DEBKAfile Exclusive Report November 9, 2004, 10:19 PM (GMT+02:00) On Monday, November 8, it looked as though, after ten days, the brawl within the Palestinian leadership over Yasser Arafat’s body and ill-gotten fortune might be running out of mind-boggling maneuvers, when French president Jacques Chirac stepped in. Whereas until now, he had insisted on the whole mess being removed from France tout de suite, Monday, November 8, he saw a way of using the arrival of present and former Palestinian prime ministers, Ahmed Qureia (Abu Ala) and Mahmoud Abbas (Abu Mazen), to pick up points for France and score a few against the US interest. After a consultation with his Middle East advisers, he decided to back Suha Arafat all the way and at the same time reach out to the radical, rejectionist wing of the Palestinian camp - PLO politburo chief Farouk Kaddumi, Arafat’s close confidant Hanni al Hassan, Force 17 commander and senior terrorist chief Col. Feisal Abu Srakh, as well as Mohammed Jihad, an important Jordanian Palestinian general. Abu Ala and Abu Mazen had been deeply shamed by the hysterical pre-dawn outburst of Arafat’s wife Suha against them both over al Jazeera Arabic TV. She accused them of an “intrigue to bury Abu Amar (Arafat) alive,” and declared her husband was well and would return to lead his people. “I appeal to you to be aware of the scale of the conspiracy,” she shouted. Ordinary Palestinians were furious. One asked ironically what sort of uprising had she conducted in Paris, where she has lived alone most of her married life. She was accused of manipulatively withholding information about Arafat’s medical condition, preventing the Percy military hospital from giving out real information on his mysterious ailment and providing fertile ground for wild speculation. Swallowing their chagrin, Abu Ala and Abu Mazen flew to the French capital to sort out the imbroglio. It was clear to them all that Arafat could not be maintained on life support systems beyond a couple of days, that his body must be removed and a funeral arranged to salvage the last shreds of the Palestinian leader’s dignity. To accomplish this, Suha would have to be paid off. DEBKAfile’s sources learned she had been prepared to demand their signatures on documents drafted by her French lawyers guaranteeing her multimillion dollar inheritance and pension - as the price for switching off life support systems. But the two Palestinian officials were further humiliated when they arrived at the Percy hospital gates. French medical spokesman Christian Estripeau, who was back on duty after being withdrawn, intoned the only meaningless bulletin permitted him: “His condition is stable… Mr. Arafat’s condition forces us to limit visits.” Mrs Arafat still held the key to their access to Arafat - except on her terms. With the French president behind her, those terms can only become stiffer. And by grinding Abu Ala and Abu Mazen down, she is doing her part in enhancing the standing of their radical rivals.

To: Peter Dierks who wrote (7784)	11/10/2004 9:51:12 AM
From: Scoobah	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 32591

and you can expect more of this: haaretzdaily.com Last Update: 10/11/2004 14:45 Report: Iran admits to supplying Hezbollah with drones By Yoav Stern and Ze'ev Schiff, Haaretz Correspondents A senior Iranian official has admitted that Tehran supplied Hezbollah with the drone that spent several minutes in Israeli skies in the north of the country on Sunday, an Arab-language newspaper reported Wednesday. Haaretz reported Tuesday that Iranian drone experts from the Iranian Revolutionary Guards took part in the launch from Lebanon of a Hezbollah drone that spent several minutes over northern Israel this week. On Wednesday, the Arab-language Al-Shark Al-Awsat newspaper, which is published in London, quoted a senior official in the Revolutionary Guards as saying that the drone was one of eight Iran-produced unmanned airborne vehicles that the country gave Hezbollah in August. Iran also supplied Hezbollah with surface-to-surface missiles that have a 70-kilometer range, according to the report. The official also said Iran had launched similar drones over Iraq to garner information on American military activity there. The first launch of an Iranian drone by Hezbollah ended with the plane crashing on its way back to Lebanon. The drone apparently carried a camera capable of transmitting images while the plane is in motion. The Hezbollah operatives were trained in the use of the plane by experts from the Iranian Revolutionary Guards. The Iranian activity can be regarded as a clear-cut case of aggression against Israel. What makes it unusual is that Iranian military experts from the Revolutionary Guards sent their people to a third country to act against Israel. They have usually supported Palestinian terror groups with money or weapons, but in this case, Iranians were involved directly in launching the drone and preparing it for its mission. Lebanon also cannot wash its hands of the affair and pretend innocence. It is possible the Lebanese did not know about the activity and the preparations and did not know about the Iranian involvement, but since it took place on Lebanese territory, the Lebanese government is directly responsible for the act of aggression. Its arguments won't hold water if Israel decides to react to similar incidents in the future. The drone was developed and built in Iranian plants in the 1990s. The aircraft is considered technologically very simple, with a pre-programmed route that is installed before launch. During the flight, a camera sends images back to a ground station, which was supposedly manned by Iranians, and the plane is apparently supposed to land by parachute. One of the Iranian conditions for the supply of the drones was that Hezbollah get clearance from Tehran before any launch. The launch and other military activity shows Iranians are in Lebanon, under the patronage and cover of Hezbollah, doing whatever they want. Syria continues to maintain military units in Lebanon while Lebanon operates through the Revolutionary Guards and other bodies. Lately, Sheikh Hassan Nasrallah has bragged that his organization can restrain Israel in the aerial sphere. He declared Hezbollah would change the aerial-military equation. It is reasonable to assume he had received surface-to-air missiles from either Syria or Iran. Clearly, the existence of a few drones will not change the balance of power in the air with Israel, even if the drones can penetrate Israel much deeper, and even if they carry cameras or even explosives. The drone penetration certainly surprised Israel's air defenses and lessons can be expected to be learned from the incident. The Israel Air Force and its radar system should have no problem dealing with the Hezbollah drones and should set a price that Hezbollah and Lebanon will pay for such incursions. Another lesson is that if Iran is ready to take the risk with such a direct involvement, it could slide into even riskier moves.