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Strategies & Market Trends : The Epic American Credit and Bond Bubble Laboratory -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Ramsey Su who wrote (21647)	11/11/2004 11:31:42 AM
From: John Vosilla	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 110194

Thanks for the article. A lot of it made sense though Las Vegas near the bottom of the pack and with even less risk than many midwestern markets like Houston, Dallas and Kansas City didn't. I would have expected it to be at least on a par with Denver. I wonder if PMI might not factor in the true ripple effect on local employment of a major slowdown on housing construction

To: Ramsey Su who wrote (21647)	11/11/2004 11:51:21 AM
From: zebra4o1	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 110194

No wonder I see a housing crash as a no-brainer - I live in San Francisco, the epicenter of the housing bubble (according to the PMI model). But PMI only gives the Bay Area a 40% to 50% probability of a price decline - way too low. Would be interesting to get into the details of the PMI model. Is it based on historical data or what? In any case, it's good to keep in mind the purpose of this study. It is a publicity artifact designed to show that PMI is a sober, financially sound insurance company carefully weighing the risks, and taking into account all possible adverse scenarios. But after careful, detailed analysis the risks are found to be quite low - so PMI is a fantastic investment. There is no possibility whatsoever that PMI will blow up due to a housing crash.