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Strategies & Market Trends : The Epic American Credit and Bond Bubble Laboratory -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: zebra4o1 who wrote (21652)	11/11/2004 12:26:40 PM
From: Ramsey Su	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 110194

I wonder if PMI's model is influenced by the amount of claims they are experiencing.

To: zebra4o1 who wrote (21652)	11/11/2004 12:29:59 PM
From: John Vosilla	Respond to of 110194

True there is a conflict of interest for sure. I think if you raised the percentages in the report by a factor of 2 or 3 that would be about right in most coastal bubble markets. In the inexpensive midwest markets the report might be about right. I just looked at the charts of four main mortgage insurance companies RDN,ORI,MTG and PMI. Two are in slow downtrends since the summer after hitting new highs. The other two are approaching highs set early this year So the market does not see the bubble bursting in most markets in the next quarter. IMHO this will be a second half 2005 story <It is a publicity artifact designed to show that PMI is a sober, financially sound insurance company carefully weighing the risks, and taking into account all possible adverse scenarios>