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Strategies & Market Trends : Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: SeaViewer who wrote (16217)	11/18/2004 12:28:51 PM
From: mishedlo	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 116555

ICC/Ifo world economic climate indicator signals slowing growth Thursday, November 18, 2004 4:33:16 PM afxpress.com PARIS (AFX) - The International Chamber of Commerce (ICC) said its world economic climate indicator suggests that global growth will slow down over the next six months "The unusually robust expansion of the world economy will flag somewhat, according to the results of the latest ICC/Ifo world economic survey," the ICC said "The expectations for the coming six months have again weakened to some extent, but the appraisals of the current situation have once more improved," said Hans-Werner Sinn, president of the German Ifo institute, which carries out the survey with the ICC "These results are characteristic for the late phase of a cyclical upswing," he said The quarterly economic climate indicator fell to 103.8 in October from 109.2 in July and 110.1 in April, but remained well above its 1990-2003 average of 93 "The only moderate weakening in economic expectations and the further improvement in the assessments of the current situation still point to a positive development of the world economy in the first half of 2005 despite a weakened dynamic," Ifo said The indicator is based on a survey of 1,145 economic experts in 90 countries The ICC said the climate indicator fell most clearly in North America, reflecting both a weakening in appraisals of the current situation as well as in expectations for the US economy In Asia and Western Europe the decline in the climate indicator was solely due to less optimistic expectations for the six months ahead, with the current economic situation receiving a positive assessment in both regions

To: SeaViewer who wrote (16217)	11/18/2004 1:39:42 PM
From: RealMuLan	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 116555

>>I still think Chinese government would keep RMB at current exchange rate, and let the exporters raise the price. << Yeah, some scholars are calling China should push to increase the wage, thus the labor cost and product cost, instead of just appreciate RMB. >>China is expanding its direct trading with middle east, Africa, S America, Russia, etc. They know exporting to US will slow down.<< The trade bet. China and the US was down about 0.5% in 2003, although not much, but may set up a trend. And made-in-China products are more welcomed in developing countries than in developed countries (maybe because we are the poor people<g>), so why not shift the focus, so that China will be harassed less. OTOH, increasing wages for the migrant workers in China will increase domestic consumption as well.