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Gold/Mining/Energy : Copper - analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: TrueScouse who wrote (1020)	11/21/2004 10:01:56 AM
From: Louis V. Lambrecht	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 2131

Howy, there is no way to know if those 1100 contracts are in or out of the money. These can be left-overs of i.e. a spread on which the profit already has been made, leaving an open position worth $ 1/16. These can as well be contracts for which the holder would ask for delivery. Among the holders of valid contracts entitled for physical delivery, the seller of the futures (or options) still has the time to negociate, eventually by offering to roll over the contract with a deep discount (it is only paper). Hence, even if inventories are low (and prices high =supply/demand) the Comex price could go lower for a while. In short, 1100 open contracts mean anything between zero and 12000 tons. I'd say, meaningless. Only way to know, is to follow the "delivery intent" releases on your Reuters or Bloomberg station. And these are "intents" subject to change. I haven't paid for Bloomber or Reuters.<g>