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Strategies & Market Trends : The Epic American Credit and Bond Bubble Laboratory -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: loantech who wrote (22182)	11/21/2004 10:25:57 AM
From: Wyätt Gwyön	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 110194

Tom, my position is a little different--my main focus is energy so that is the market i "stick" in. the gold sector is for me very secondary: i can take them or leave them, which means i will ONLY enter those trades if there is a lot of distress selling. likewise, i am willing to sell before "the top" (although when i hear Richard Russell is bullish i start running). i did so last year and i won't be surprised if i sold before the top this year as well--i think the introduction of GLD brings a lot of unpredictability, because on the one hand there will be people selling out of miners-as-proxies and buying into GLD, but then the very buying raises investment demand which is of course bullish long term. but as i see it, i was already more than 100% anti-USD if i count energies, crude futures, PMs, foreign bonds, etc. and the anti-USD trade seems to be reaching another extreme. therefore i sell the highest beta (the PMs). next on the list will be foreign currencies. i don't think i will sell the energy equities anytime soon as i believe they are still cheap on an absolute and relative basis. PF up 350% + last 3 years nice gains. good trading...