Silicon Investor (SI) -- The First Internet Community

STOCKTALK

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor. We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community. If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.

Gold/Mining/Energy : Precious and Base Metal Investing -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Taikun who wrote (32733)	11/24/2004 4:23:30 PM
From: NOW	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 39344

the airlines have no money for new fleets and if the scenario takes hold travel will likely fall.

To: Taikun who wrote (32733)	11/24/2004 7:51:57 PM
From: LLCF	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 39344

<If the US dollar falls, there is enough margin in products where Chinese exporters (and UN importers) make obscene profits for production to shift to the US.> Isn't the Yuan tied to $US anyway? <So, lighters, and bedroom furniture sets and planes consumed in the US will be made in the US again. It will be hailed as the rebirth of American industry. It may take a few years but there will be a lot of people willing to work for lower wages. Bush has already started with the tariffs on some imports which will make American more relatively competitive in the short-term.> 1.) With Lighters having such huge margin, the Chinese will cut price. It'll be a billion years before lighters are made here again. 2.) The same can be said for most of what is made in China... it may be a billion years before the bulk of our inputs can be made here again.... unless the dollar falls 70%, which is probably what should happen. 3.) Rebirth of American industry will take years... that is a long term adjustment... AND takes investment and more debt. I agree with your long [decades] term prognosis... but the adjustment isn't just going to happen willy nilly. This is going to be ugly and you need a MUCH lower $US over time due to the debt racked up. DAK