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Technology Stocks : Novellus -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Kirk © who wrote (3530)	12/1/2004 2:45:19 AM
From: Cary Salsberg	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 3813

RE: "...they said they shipped $382.2M last Q so this means they are still seeing a serious decline in orders..." Why are you comparing "shipped" to orders? Orders for Q3 were higher than the shipped number, so things are even more "serious" than you suggested. The good news is that industry conditions seem to be as good or slightly better than when they last reported in October. This stability contrasts with analysts' predictions of a worsening market and might not be expected after AMAT forecast a 35% decline in orders. By the way, the new forecasts say revenue for 2004 will be between $1342M and $1347M, exceeding the bubble peak of $1339M in 2001. In 1996, UTEK had historical peak revenues of $194M while NVLS had revenues of $462M. 7 analysts estimate UTEK will have $114M in revenues in 2004.

To: Kirk © who wrote (3530)	12/1/2004 9:43:03 AM
From: Proud_Infidel	Respond to of 3813

Novellus Systems Is Fairly Valued 12.01.04, 9:26 AM ET Standard & Poor's Equity Research maintained a "hold" rating on Novellus Systems (nasdaq: NVLS - news - people ) and raised estimates on the semiconductor company. Based on higher sales and margin assumptions, S&P Equity Research raised its fourth-quarter earnings estimate to 25 cents per share from 19 cents. The research firm raised its 2004 and 2005 earnings-per-share estimates to $1.04 and $1.36, from 99 cents and $1.35, respectively. "During its mid-quarter update, Novellus forecasts fourth-quarter earnings per share of 24 cents to 26 cents on revenues of $325 million to $330 million," S&P Equity Research said. "New orders and shipments both appear to be tracking near the upper end of the company's earlier forecast." The research firm said Novellus is fairly valued based on relative price-earnings analysis. "But we suggest investors hold its shares, given our longer-term optimism for the chip equipment group," S&P Equity Research said.