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Strategies & Market Trends : Booms, Busts, and Recoveries -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: TobagoJack who wrote (56775)	12/7/2004 5:26:11 AM
From: Golconda	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 74559

Jay, sold only a small portion of Ocean Wilsons @ £2.75 having bought @ £2.5 claiming 10% for 5 days holding. 2005? well it seems to get harder every year does it not? When looking at prospects for the equity mkt it is probably useful to look at the US Treasury mkt. This is because a weak US$ may hit the US treasury with rising interest rates, a disaster for a debt-fuelled economy. Result may be massive slowdown in the US. Also, if anyone is actually still using discounted cash flow techniques to value US equities this increase in rates would cause a fall in the PE ratio of the market by itself ignoring the attendant slowdown. India rather than China (similar emerging class of consumers, rising currency(s)?,clearER financial a/cing,established entrepreneurial sector,low PE, and a real boom in real estate possible (a REIT is under discussion)) Steel - global slowdown notwithstanding there has been, and probably will continue to be a consolidation on a global basis, pricing power should improve - various specific US steel processors should do well. Malaysia - improved(?) political situation, low PE, rising foreign reserves leading eventually to repeg before china,current REIT has some issues but property fundementally cheap,resource economy (Rowe Evans?),chinese tourists (Genting casinos?) Plenty more thoughts still whirling, churning yet to solidify or may become even more nebulous.