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Strategies & Market Trends : The Epic American Credit and Bond Bubble Laboratory -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: mishedlo who wrote (22818)	12/3/2004 10:49:27 PM
From: Square_Dealings	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 110194

I am a little bit suspicious of the drop in crude. At least such a sharp drop. Especially when you hear Nissan is shutting down auto plants because of materials shortages, and there are a few days of copper in inventory. There are a lot of derivative games being played here which makes the markets pretty dangerous I think. I think you can use the crude chart as a model of things to come in the stock market. M

To: mishedlo who wrote (22818)	12/4/2004 11:54:45 AM
From: russwinter	Respond to of 110194

I think the world economy is cooling some, but oil usage is still on a powerful growth trajectory. When you step back and analyze what happened this week, you can see that: 1. Distillates were finally built, as an extraordinary refining effort (the issue isn't especially US CL inventory, it's byproduct) was made, with utilization above historic high levels (see page 5 RJ: beacon1.rjf.com, that's unsustainable. Even so distillate inventories are at historic lows (see page 3 RJ report). Additionally, the weather Russian Roulette bullet was totally avoided in Nov, they are just damn lucky is all, with an incredible 55% less HDD than norm. cpc.ncep.noaa.gov But now real winter starts. 2. Traders and funds are reactive, and just operate on rote, selling "because they're suppose to". I would bet that they are now shorting the energies complex, and that's nuts, because nothing has really changed. There was a decent swoon in Cu too last week, more "bogus synthetic economics" IMO. Because of a slowdown? Perhaps, but the bottom line is that someone quickly showed up yesterday to clean 3,696 MT out of Comex and LME, bringing it down to 92,602 MT. A full fledged Depression is going to be required to keep copper and energy prices capped now.