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Politics : Dutch Central Bank Sale Announcement Imminent? -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: philv who wrote (22089)	12/5/2004 11:34:53 AM
From: sea_urchin	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 81145

Phil, thanks for the links. I visited them all and downloaded van Eeden's speech which I will listen to in due course. Apropos his and my common view on the gold price, I find this bit rather stunning: >>The undeniable correlation is no coincidence, and begs the question whether the dollar can sustain its current exchange rate. I have already addressed that issue in a previous article (see "Predicting the Gold Price", February 6, 2004) and concluded that gold is likely to exceed $1,000 an ounce within five years, regardless of whatever short term volatility we encounter on the way. We should, however, not be too sanguine; a nasty short term correction in the gold price can severely damage one's portfolio, which is often accompanied by a general sense of humor failure.<< If the relationship remains true, a gold price of $1000 means that the USD index will fall to less than half its present value ie 40 (on the Richter scale!) And it also means one Euro will be worth 2.6 dollars. Frankly, I can't see this simply because, other than goldbugs and currency speculators, I don't know who will benefit? Certainly not the US and most decidedly not the countries whose currencies will have to be revalued to accommodate the USD devaluation. Anyway, talk is cheap -- especially as far as guessing the gold price is concerned. And it seems the higher one guesses, the more one is regarded as an expert -- and the more one can charge for one's newsletter.

To: philv who wrote (22089)	12/5/2004 5:16:11 PM
From: sea_urchin	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 81145

Phil, for amusement, I prepared two charts -- one of the gold price and the other of the reciprocal of the USD index. stockcharts.com[h,a]dalaynay[de][p]&r=4425 stockcharts.com[h,a]dalaynay[de][p]&r=4425 If you open each one on a different browser page you can compare them. You will see that, although the charts are very similar, they are not identical. Over the two year period of the charts, gold appreciated by about 42% and the dollar depreciated by about 37%.