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To: energyplay who wrote (56939)	12/5/2004 3:54:43 AM
From: elmatador	Respond to of 74559

I'd keep away from ABB.

To: energyplay who wrote (56939)	12/5/2004 4:35:08 AM
From: Elroy Jetson	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 74559

When assessing the performance of a Swiss corporation the company's stock is often a poor proxy. A Swiss company's primary mission is providing Swiss jobs not providing for shareholders, only some of whom are Swiss. However repaying loans to Swiss banks ranks higher on the list of priorities. Subject to frequent public referendum, Switzerland's day to day course is driven by the executives of their biggest employers - banks and insurance companies. The disappearance of Swissair on October 11, 2001 is one example. Unfavorable industry economics combined with the excuse of reduced travel stemming from September 11, 2001 led Credit Suisse and UBS to pull the plug on Swiss Air transferring its assets to their regional CrossAir subsidiary leading to a new Swissair. They dumped the shareholders and the banks retained their interest. But the real forces driving this transformation traced back to two other problems. 1.) Swissair copied the Nestlé regional acquisition model and over-paid for assets. britishexpat.com 2.) The more serious problem was the unfavorable public sentiment in Switzerland generated by the crash of flight 111 off Nova Scotia in September 1998. Swiss trains are supposed to run on-time to the minute and Swiss planes are not supposed to crash. Prior to Flight 111 their record was almost as favourable as Qantas with their record of no passenger fatalities. Generally, the Swiss opinion of free-trade and globalization is like your Mother's advice, "If everyone was jumping off a cliff would you have to do it too?" They'll acquire businesses in various regional markets around the world, but exporting Swiss jobs is Verobten. What industries will fare better copying the Nestlé regional acquisition model is hard to predict, but the banks like loans with good returns? Just look at the list of companies and visualize the results. transnationale.org The global employee rental company, Addeco SA, actually performs better when local economies are on the skids and prefer easy-to-discharge rented employees. The elevator and escalator maker Schindler Holding has a stable flow of repair and maintenance in addition to their cyclical new equipment business segment. They are aggressively purchasing service companies and other related businesses globally. Like Schindler, a lot of regional market acquisition is being done by the many specialty equipment makers, some of whom are on the list of the largest companies and many not. The luxury suppliers also have a stable business which easily grow globally with bank funding: Bally, Montres, Rolex, Swatch, Tag Heuer and smaller firms. The biggest money is being placed into purchasing their end channel distributors or creating new channels. Companies like ABB are necessary, but don't represent the nation's future. I recall Bechtel in San Francisco employing six buildings of employees during good years and less than one building of employees during a down-turn. The reason I brought up ABB is the "granularity" of Swiss employment statistics with only 7.1 million citizens. The recent uptick of less than 0.1% in Swiss unemployment (1,771 people) could have easily traced back to a completed ABB project or a lost contract.