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Strategies & Market Trends : Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: zonder who wrote (17748)	12/6/2004 9:10:44 AM
From: mishedlo	Respond to of 116555

BTW my position is that the FED will hike SLOWER than what is priced in. That is not the same as expecting no hikes. Then you HAVE changed your position. Sorry for not being up to date on your "position". The last we talked about this (a month or so ago), you were saying Fed is DONE HIKING. Not really but I see the confusion. Position in the first sentence was referring to my investment. I have been positioned for rate hikes to occur at a slower pace than have been priced in. I did say the FED was done hiking. I was wrong because I was wrong about the economic data that came in. The FED has a dual mandate to maintain growth and maintain prices. This FED has always erred to the side of maintaining growth. I expect them to keep doing that. I also believe interest rates are neutral at this point or close to it and that there is a lag affect of the hikes that have taken place (and the one to come) and what is transpiring right now. I believe the affect of those 5 hikes will be to dramatically slow the economy. That is how I am positioned. Is it possible I am wrong and it takes 3 more hikes? I suppose it is. I just doubt it. You want to see the affect of the hikes before acting. I do not. 5 hikes with a 125% increase in rates is rather substantial but it takes time to filter thru. Some of the brightest minds that I can see that agree. Rosenberg at Merrill Lynch, Lacy Hunt, Paul Kasriel, and Heinz. I will take that group over any 4 people you can find for your camp. No doubt you can find 500 people predicting massive rate hikes. I prefer to listen to what I believe are the better arguments. The stumbling block for all the inflation alarmists is quite simply housing. When it goes it is lights out. Mish

To: zonder who wrote (17748)	12/6/2004 9:14:33 AM
From: mishedlo	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 116555

UK manufacturing, industrial output continue to decline in October Monday, December 6, 2004 9:53:10 AM afxpress.com LONDON (AFX) - Hard-pressed manufacturers in the UK continued to suffer in October with output on a year-on-year basis falling by its biggest amount for over a year, official figures showed today The office of National Statistics said manufacturing output during the month fell by 0.1 pct from September and by 0.5 pct year-on-year, the biggest annual fall since August 2003 The declines were unexpected. Analysts polled by AFX News had predicted a 0.4 monthly rise and a 0.1 pct annual increase The wider measure of industrial production, which also includes utilities output as well as manufacturing output, also fell by 0.1 pct, the fifth consecutive monthly fall. The statistics office said this is the longest run of falls since January to July 2001 On a year-on-year basis, industrial output fell 2.0 pct, the biggest annual fall since May 2003 Industrial output had been expected to increase by 0.6 pct on the month and fall by 0.4 pct from a year earlier A spokesman for the statistics office said the figures reflect the fact that manufacturers have been unable to pass on extra costs by raising prices, and added that this is the first month where this factor has been evident across a wide range of industries In September, manufacturing output rose by 0.1 pct from August and by 0.5 pct year-on-year. Industrial output was up 0.3 pct from a month earlier and fell 0.9 pct on an annual basis Among manufacturing sub-sectors, there were falls in 12 sectors, with significant falls in transport equipment and pulp, paper and publishing. There was also a significant rise in chemicals and man-made fibres, NS said Over the last three months, manufacturing output has fallen by 1.0 pct from the previous three months and industrial output by 1.7 pct Industrial output for the third quarter was revised to a 1.3 pct decline from the 1.4 pct drop reported in last month's release, while manufacturing output for the period was revised to a fall of 0.8 pct from a fall of 1.0 pct The statistics office said the trend estimate for manufacturing shows an annual growth rate of -1 pct against -0.5 pct last month Meanwhile, the trend estimate for industrial production shows an annual growth rate of -2 pct, also below last month's rate of -1.5 pct Today's weak figures are likely to increase expectations that the Bank of England may well leave interest rates on hold for a while yet, with many anticipating that the next move is most likely to be down forexstreet.com

To: zonder who wrote (17748)	12/6/2004 9:22:22 AM
From: mishedlo	Respond to of 116555

Buba´s Weber sees German 2005 GDP growth 1.2-1.3 pct Monday, December 6, 2004 10:57:59 AM afxpress.com Buba's Weber sees German 2005 GDP growth 1.2-1.3 pct FRANKFURT (AFX) - The Bundesbank expects German GDP growth of 1.2-1.3 pct in 2005, its president Axel Weber said. That compares with the German government's 2005 growth forecast of 1.7 pct

To: zonder who wrote (17748)	12/6/2004 9:28:29 AM
From: mishedlo	Respond to of 116555

Why the Current Account Deficit Matters John P. Hussman, Ph.D. All rights reserved and actively enforced. It's uncanny how cheerful the economic outlook seems to analysts whose ideas are unbaked by any apparent knowledge about the economy. Among the fatuous bits of applesauce dropped from the table of CNBC's monthly employment report Breakfast of Champions was the idea that the inevitable adjustment to the U.S. current account deficit will be good for U.S. growth. hussmanfunds.com

To: zonder who wrote (17748)	12/6/2004 9:34:07 AM
From: mishedlo	Respond to of 116555

UK GDP up 0.4 pct in 3-months to end-Nov from previous 3-months - NIESR Monday, December 6, 2004 1:45:38 PM afxpress.com LONDON (AFX) - The UK economy continues to grow at below its so-called trend rate following another disappointing set of manufacturing data, a leading think-tank said today. The National Institute of Economic and Social Research is predicting that UK GDP in the three months to end-November increased by only 0.4 pct from the previous three months, below the estimated trend rate of growth of a quarterly 0.6 pct NIESR is also predicting that growth in the three months was 0.3 pct, below the 0.4 pct recorded in official figures for the quarter to end-September However, NIESR hinted at better data to come, adding that these data have depressed by an unfavourable comparison with output levels in the second quarter of the year, when growth stood at a hefty 0.9 pct "The estimated growth rate for the fourth quarter is likely to be higher than this because the comparison will be made only with the months of the weaker third quarter, NIESR said Today's data come in the wake of further weak manufacturing data The office of National Statistics said earlier that hard-pressed manufacturers continued to suffer in October with output on a year-on-year basis falling by its biggest amount for over a year It added that manufacturing output during the month fell by 0.1 pct from September and by 0.5 pct year-on-year, the biggest annual fall since August 2003 The declines were unexpected. Analysts polled by AFX News had predicted a 0.4 monthly rise and a 0.1 pct annual increase The wider measure of industrial production, which also includes utilities output as well as manufacturing output and accounts for over 20 pct of the UK's GDP, also fell by 0.1 pct, the fifth consecutive monthly fall. The statistics office said this is the longest run of falls since January to July 2001 On a year-on-year basis, industrial output fell 2.0 pct, the biggest annual fall since May 2003