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Gold/Mining/Energy : Big Dog's Boom Boom Room -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: quehubo who wrote (37191)	12/6/2004 8:53:47 PM
From: Ed Ajootian	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 206184

que, I don't think there is much unused capacity for LNG terminals here at this time, so where is this Asian LNG gonna go once it gets here? Before you jump out the window, consider this. Robry's seasonally adjusted baseline for the last 4 weeks together was a draw of 3 BCF, and we had a draw of 1 BCF. I believe there can be a significant amount of "noise" in any one (or two) week's EIA numbers, and a more reasonable approach would be to use a 4 week moving average. If Robry is right about Thursday's number even the 4 week moving average will turn bearish, but remember that it is an anomally week and he has missed fairly big in some prior anomally weeks. Joe Allman at RBC is calling for 80+.

To: quehubo who wrote (37191)	12/7/2004 10:19:24 AM
From: Keith J	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 206184

que, Am still having difficulty disecting what is happening with NG demand and supply. Even with increased pipeline and LNG imports, I view gross supply as roughly flat with last year (excluding the still shut-in gas in the Gulf). However, Raymond James indicates there is a lot less liquids stripping (over 1 bcf/day) at this point than last year. So that currently puts net available supply at about 1.5 bcf/day less than last year (including Gulf shut-in gas). On the demand side, adjusting for weather, it appears that NG use for power is up slightly. Industrial demand is a bit harder to gauge - industrial production numbers are strong, Dow Chemical says volumes are up, refining is strong. But for sake of argument, lets say industrial demand is down around 5% (or 1 bcf/day) via conservation and demand destruction. That leaves commercial and residential. With new buildings and houses, is hard to believe there would be a significant reduction in demand unless people are turning the thermostats back. Yet it appears we are running close to 2 bcf/day lower than the baseline, and given my calculations above, that would mean we are running 2.5 bcf/day under normal in the residential and commercial sectors. Where else could the difference in supply or demand be coming from? KJ