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Politics : Moderate Forum -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: cosmicforce who wrote (14543)	12/9/2004 4:55:27 AM
From: Raymond Duray	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 20773

Re: Most commodity prices would WAY MORE than double with a double in demand. Your comments are interesting and useful. I've watched the crude oil market for a couple of decades now and I've developed a rough rule of thumb on the market. Broadly, as supply/demand imbalances occur, a 1% deviation of the supply of crude oil from the demand for same in the global market results in about an $8/bbl swing in the price of crude. This was more true until 2002 when the market realized that Alan Greenspan was destroying the dollar and responded by upping the $/bbl volatility accordingly. Basically, what I'm trying to indicate is that while demand is relatively inelastic, supply has been in a steady decline vis a vis demand since the peak year of 1972 and the volatility associated with supply/demand imbalances can only be expected to rise now that the shut-in capacity of the world's crude oil production industry has shrunk from a high of 25% in 1972 to a very disturbing 1% today.

To: cosmicforce who wrote (14543)	12/10/2004 4:16:16 PM
From: Yogizuna	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 20773

You know, at this point in my life I am greatly saddened by the fact we have become more addicted fo foreign oil than ever, and way back in 1973 I was naive enough to believe my follow Americans would be intelligent enough to break the bonds of their addiction using various forms of alternative energy sources. Never in my wildest dreams did I ever think "we" would be so stupid as to make the situation worse by using war as a "tool" to maintain our addiction for as long as possible. "We" are just like the heroin addict who breaks into homes to keep their supply of drugs flowing, and that is a pathetic way for a "great nation" to act at this point in time.