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Strategies & Market Trends : Ask Vendit Off-Topic Questions -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Walkingshadow who wrote (2569)	12/9/2004 6:25:35 PM
From: Vendit™	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 8752

Terry, I fully agree with your theory about Iraq and the business aspects of why they probably won’t break away from OPEC or at least OPEC standards of oil output in the longer scheme of things. I am thinking that the news release that I linked back to you earlier today which clearly states that Iraq in not currently under any oil output quota restraints during their rebuilding phase which will likely take a few years will cause instability in output or a rise in output. This non quota oil producing nation (Iraq) will more than likely out produce the OPEC nations on a daily basis in an effort to under sell their competition, OPEC, and attract as much overseas business exporting of oil so they will have the money to rebuild their new Mecca democracy. The above scenario should cause a temporary destabilization and over production of crude oil as the OPEC members begin to cheat on their quotas, as has always been the case. The difference at this stage of the game is that Iraq does not have to cheat quotas in order to produce as much oil as they need to. Prices at the pump where I live continue to fall. The only reason that this can occur is economics 101, supply vs. demand. Someone has the oil taps open and in high gear. Normally the U.S. experiences rising heating oil and gas prices this time of year, not falling prices. I simply view Iraq as “The Spoiler” to OPEC’s attempt to keep oil prices high for the next year or two. This is a good thing for the U.S. economy and will be good for the stock market. Reid

To: Walkingshadow who wrote (2569)	12/9/2004 6:50:44 PM
From: Vendit™	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 8752

And then there is the official U.S. government theory which closely matches your logic. <g> Report Expects High Oil Prices for Decades Thursday December 9, 5:32 pm ET By H. Josef Hebert, Associated Press Writer U.S. Government Report Says $30-A-Barrel Oil Should Be Expected for Decades to Come WASHINGTON (AP) -- While the recent flurry of record oil prices may be temporary, government analysts said Thursday that $30-a-barrel oil should be expected for decades to come. Crude is likely to cost about $35 a barrel in 2025, an increase that is nearly a third higher than predicted a few years ago, according to a long-term energy outlook report issued by the federal Energy Information Administration. biz.yahoo.com