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Biotech / Medical : Biotech Valuation -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?


To: ewolf who wrote (14613)12/9/2004 9:17:39 PM
From: Biomaven  Respond to of 52153
 
Well it makes a little more sense if you figure the risk/reward calculus. To the extent KOSP has switched patients already, then a generic doesn't buy Barr nearly as much - perhaps half if KOSP has switched half the patients, maybe only quarter if KOSP in addition does an authorized generic which they would be more likely to do if they have an alternative formulation on the market. From KOSP's perspective, trying to introduce a new formulation once a generic is already on the market is nearly impossible.

Note that KOSP does have multiple patents, both use and formulation. I think the key one relates to the notion of intermediate release speed to prevent liver damage. But I have no idea if there was prior art.

But overall I just don't see Barr launching at risk - the threat of triple damages must surely outweigh the advantages of an early launch unless they are really confident of the strength of their case.

Peter



To: ewolf who wrote (14613)12/9/2004 11:04:11 PM
From: rkrw  Read Replies (2) | Respond to of 52153
 
<<<if Kos can get their improved version to market by 2006>>>

Can you really say the new version is improved? "Once at night" or "once at night low flush," does it make a material difference? Any users able to comment? Have they said how much lower, as in slight blushing versus Rudolph? :-)



To: ewolf who wrote (14613)12/9/2004 11:04:27 PM
From: rkrw  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 52153
 
Sanderson going out on quite a limb with his 60-70% estimate.
He must think he knows something.

Barr is the originator of patent challenges with the most experience. I'd guess they'd have to be 90%+ certain to risk it. Is it possible to be that confident at this stage?