".... GDP seems to be predicted to grow 6.3% next year, and perhaps 6.8% the year after."
KB,
I like Thomas Barnett's concept of "core" and "gap" countries ( thomaspmbarnett.com and it would be well for the world if a nuclear armed India fell securely into the core.
If one looked only at the education level and incomes of Indians as reflected in the success of their immigrants to the U.S., it would be no problem.
I could very well be wrong, but I see major obstacles:
(1) First, even if India does grow as much as the world bank projects, this pales in comparison to that of the Asian "tigers" who have had average growth rates much higher than that for decades. China, for instance, expects its growth to slow to "only" a little more than 8% this year. In the early 1990s, India had little or no growth. It began to grow rapidly only after 1995 when the BJP party came to power. The BJP party, espouses free-market principles,but BJP, unfortunately, is also the "Hindu-first" party. That creates sectarian problems which I'll discuss below. In 2004, the national elections were won by the Congress party - headed by the Italian-born Sonia Gandhi - which traditionally has been the party of Fabian socialism. Initially, the Indian stock market fell precipitiously, and only recovered when Sonia declined the PM job, and a pragmatist was appointed.
(2) THE MARGINALIZATION OF 150 MILLION MUSLIMS
In my earlier post, I quoted 2 Hindu politicians to the effect that most of their Muslim citizens are congenitally of the criminal class. I myself spoke at length with a wealthy "rajput" businessman, who other than comments he made along the same lines, was the most courtly and intelligent person imaginable. Attitudes like this in a society become self-fulfilling. Mobs destroy Muslim businesses, government declines (in practice) to hire Muslms, and closes schools in their neighborhoods, while opening police stations. If this is happening - and I believe it is - how can a society so divided grow itself put of its problems?
(3)STIFLING INDIAN GOVERNMENTAL BUREAUCRACY
I forgot to mention this in my earlier post, but it is something that I observed - and experienced! - in my stay. Paperwork and uncaring, lazy clerks; my "funniest" experience follows:
When our group of 15 arrived in Delhi, half of our luggage did not; we had to file reports which took 3 hours. After the first hour, we asked the one clerk if there wasn't another clerk who could help out. There was: he had been standing there all along doing nothing 10 feet away! The worst was the next day after Air India told us it had recovered our luggage. They wouldn't just send it to us in our hotel; we had to go Air India's office outside the airport to file a claim so they could pay us ~$3 for our inconvenience! Then we spent 30 minutes filling out more forms so the security guards would allow us in the airport. After that, before other clerks would release our luggage, we were required to fill out more forms, sign a log, and pay them storage fees (~$1) for the luggage they had lost! Then fill out another form so Air India would refund the storage fees. Then we were given our lost luggage, but had to take it to 2 customs clerks, who made us fill out more forms; then before we could leave the airport, we had to carry the luggage to a station for it to be x-rayed; then back to customs, and from there to the security guards who could have, but did not, detain us because somewhere along the chain some clerk had lost our entrance pass! I swear this is an absolutely true story; 6 other Americans will sign affidavits.
(4) INDIAN GROWTH IS LIMITED TO INTERNET TECHNOLOGY: CUSTOMER SERVICE, BOOKKEEPING AND PROGRAMMING
According to the Wall Street Journal, approximately 1 million Indians are employed in this "outsourced" knowledge industry. This IT industry is concentrated in just 2 or 3 southern Indian states. In addition, Indian has become a significant exporter of steel. Also,fabrics and clothing, but very little high-end stuff.
It is more significant, in my view, of what India does not do: electronic assembly, parts manufacturing, shoe manfacturing, ETC. In other words, those industrial activities that could soak up India's surplus workers, seem to be deterred by: the bureacracy,corruption, high taxes, lack of an industrial base, inadequate power supplies, rigid government planning, etc.
(5) SOCIAL RIGIDITY
I've already discussed this. It's just my very own opinion, but I believe that the combination of "arranged marriages" and the caste system (with its multiple levels) will result in too little efficient flow of human capital for this society to grow as much as it needs to.
(6) THE EXPLODING POPULATION
The bulge in India's population is taking place in rural and agricultural areas where literacy and education are actually declining.
JMVHO.
Bruce |
