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Biotech / Medical : Biotech Valuation -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Biomaven who wrote (14812)	12/20/2004 10:29:50 AM
From: Arthur Radley	Respond to of 52153

Peter, Couldn't agree more that going forward the big drug companies are facing a uphill battle. My prediction is that in 2005 we are going to see major M&A activity for those biotechs with drugs in early Phase III testing with promising results from their Phase II trials. Would be interesting to get some "guesses" as to which biotechs might be on the big drug companies radar screens at the moment. One example is the just completed deal where (QLTI)picked up IMO a jewel in (ATRX). I think (QLTI) saw the looming (EYET) approval and their current market share of this market was going to be eroded, they "had" to do something. IMO (ATRX) fits the bill for what companies will be looking for.

To: Biomaven who wrote (14812)	12/20/2004 1:14:12 PM
From: Sam Citron	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 52153

we are going to see companies think twice about conducting new Phase IV trials that might turn up something unpleasant I thought that Phase 4 postapproval studies were required by the FDA in cases where a drug that appears safe in preapproval trials is later found to cause unexpected side effects when used more widely. This is what I understand lead to the CLASS study published 9/13/00 in JAMA, with Pharmacia's disingenious omission of data from the second half of the study wherein 6 of the 7 serious gastrointestinal complications in patients taking Celebrex occurred. Much worse than a omission of disclosure of a nonobvious material defect in a house by a seller, this kind of omission by a drug manufacturer directly causes forseeable injury or death to thousands of purchasers. Fraud is too kind a word for such behavior IMO. Sam