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Strategies & Market Trends : Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Rational who wrote (19610)	12/27/2004 4:37:31 PM
From: benwood	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 116555

I agree there is far more inertia behind home ownership (and retention). That would explain why Japan's real estate bubble has taken so long to unwind. There are a lot of homes and properties owned on speculation, though, and many things can start those unwinding and help precipitate a shift in psychology and remove the topping fuel in some of the dramatic micro-bubbles and cause a significant and lasting change in ownership trends, especially multiple ownership trends. The end of imported deflation (something I expect in the next couple of years) will encourage people to think more about what they are doing with their money, and there will be some who will cut their housing costs in half by selling and renting. The biggest trend change will be away from piling on layers and layers of debt and instead working towards personal endgames that don't require working until one is 70+. My own parents (80 and 73) are both working part time now after years of retirement because they cannot make ends meet (they are terrible with money, typical of the majority of Americans).

To: Rational who wrote (19610)	12/27/2004 6:05:40 PM
From: Kailash	Respond to of 116555

Homes are where people live and so they do not sell unless they are out of job. This affects the volatility, but not the direction of the market. People sell because they can't afford to keep owning, or because they think it's a poor investment. And first they just stop buying, which is what we're seeing in the latest reports (largest inventory of new homes in 25 years). K