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Strategies & Market Trends : Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: mishedlo who wrote (19980)	12/30/2004 9:58:10 PM
From: SouthFloridaGuy	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 116555

I disagree about China. My money is on India to actually surpass China at some point in the next 10 years. China is a classic example of mal-investment caused by the lethal combination of cheap money and government control. India, with all its problems, is a free and democractic society being now being led by a man who is the rare blend of shrewed Economist and Politician. Ironically because it has been such a basket-case it has not had the luxury of billions of dollars pouring in and hence much of its demand is internalized and its core competencies lie in areas which the government forgot to mess up. I think China will ultimately be a very strong country. But not after a Depression that will be akin to ours of 1929. Hopefully this will take down its leadership and allow it to finally become what it was destined to be. I still think commodities are setting up here. Perhaps only a reflection of the dollar, but a set-up nonetheless.

To: mishedlo who wrote (19980)	12/30/2004 10:21:01 PM
From: Wyätt Gwyön	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 116555

ZERO big names in that group well, Hoisington is into that trade for several billion. and the rather well-known A. Gary Shilling has been the biggest deflation cheerleader for many years.

To: mishedlo who wrote (19980)	12/30/2004 10:23:00 PM
From: Wyätt Gwyön	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 116555

Do NOT underestimate the potential worldwide deflationary affect of a US and UK housing crash. by the same token: do NOT underestimate the ability of the Fed and the Agencies to perpetuate the US housing bubble. it seems the true bubbles all go on longer than anybody expects, especially when the people with the money hose have no interest in turning off the spigot.