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Strategies & Market Trends : Booms, Busts, and Recoveries -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Seeker of Truth who wrote (57944)	12/31/2004 10:08:11 AM
From: Taikun	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 74559

Malcolm, Don't worry about FT.TO-I don't. If NG goes to $9 and oil to $35 I will be able to say the same thing about COS. How about CNQ and the oil sands. Can they run an oil sands business? We don't yet know. They have no revenue, only expenses! Right now they're losing money. What do you say to that? "Oh, I can run an oil sands op". FT's coal has one of the lowest ash content of any coal discovered-that means it is very valuable for steel mills. I have confidence in management, even if you don't. All the hullabaloo about oil going up 50%, Malcolm, when coal has just doubled and it is still cheaper to generate electricity from coal (thermal coal). Way more coal on the earth's surface than oil, much in the US (read: national security) which is why so many utilities are building coal-fired generation plants. What was the story about all this cheap natural gas. Well, it isn't so cheap and plentiful anymore. The environmentalists won't allow nuclear power so we can either freeze to death or burn coal. I'll get black lungs anyway from the plume of mercury that comes into North America on the jet stream from China. I'm buying coal, in production or in the ground, I don't care, as long as it is good quality with decent management and a possibility of infrastructure. Malcolm, the value play is in coal. This year will be for coal, and I predict in 2005 coal (both thermal and met) outperforms oil and NG. This was a warm winter and oil is going to $35. I'll rotate my coal profits into oil in a few months. China is just making noise about not needing steel. They're trying to shout the price down. China aside, the rebuilding of the tsunami damage in Asia will cost billions and will mop up steel demand. Remember, all marginal demand drives the spot price. The tsunami just created a ton (excuse the pun) of marginal demand. I just bought some Pine Valley (PVMCF) which -barring a market selloff or disaster- will be up 30% soon. David PS That other coal company-Sherritt, wants to buy money-losing Stelco too. Go figure. On top of that, they just found 100m bbl+ of very high API crude off Cuba. Shame on them! Yep, I own that dog as well!