Silicon Investor (SI) -- The First Internet Community

STOCKTALK

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor. We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community. If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.

Strategies & Market Trends : Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: mishedlo who wrote (20587)	1/6/2005 1:13:47 PM
From: Chispas	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 116555

3 ...2 ...1 ... jobs report!................................... Ready for a big jobs number? Well, there's some backpedaling going on, but no worries. January 6, 2005: 8:05 AM EST NEW YORK (CNN/Money) - We're in the countdown to the December jobs report, always a big market focus and often a big market mover. The consensus forecast is for payrolls to rise 175,000, which would be a welcome move up from November's 112,000 new jobs. That consensus forecast isn't too much of a stretch, because it's basically the average monthly jobs growth number over the past year or so. Even so, a lot of economists are scaling back their forecasts, saying the number could be weaker. One reason, this week's December ISM manufacturing survey showed a pullback in jobs. That could be a harbinger of a weaker jobs number. Today's weekly jobless claims shouldn't affect forecasts too much because, one, there is only a rough correlation between claims and payrolls, and two, the government's survey was taken in the middle of the month, a couple of weeks before the latest claims were filed. Economists at Deutsche Bank point out that the "consensus" has overestimated payrolls in 5 of past 6 months by an average of 98,000, another reason why Wall Street might be leaning now toward a less robust jobs increase. In any case a weaker number may not have much impact, in part because people are already backpedaling. Another more important buffer could be that the Federal Reserve in the minutes of its December meeting, released two days ago, showed a bit more concern about inflation and no worries about the meager job gains of November. So a weak jobs report would probably not change expectations of more Fed rate hikes. On the other hand, if the jobs numbers are a lot stronger for some reason, this could have a big market impact, not only because it's not expected but also because it would add fuel the fire of those arguing the Fed is getting ready to pick up the pace of rate-hiking this year. Top of page Kathleen Hays is economics correspondent for CNN and contributes to Lou Dobbs Tonight. ----------------------------------------------------- money.cnn.com