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Technology Stocks : Qualcomm Moderated Thread - please read rules before posting -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Maurice Winn who wrote (44101)	1/12/2005 8:27:32 PM
From: Eric L	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 197427

Creative Slidesmanship: The Winner ... ... is Tony THORNLEY for 2004. mQ, I usually give the "Most Creative Slide" award at Qualcomm Analyst Days to IMJ but Tony was the hands down winner in 2004. The mantle has evidently passed and IMJ is now QUALCOMM's straight man, and Tony the new [old] IMJ. Tony's slide 7 here showed the estimated market share of CDMA/WCDMA handset sell-in at 29% for 2004: qualcomm.com To arrive at that 29% the slide 'creatively' showed Strategy Analytics March 2004 forecast of 596 million handsets, and superimposed on that Qualcomm's most recent much updated and unverified estimate of 170 million CDMA/WCDMA handset sell-in. Strategy Analytics had of course upped their 2004 handset sell-in forecast 3 times between March 2004 and the time Tony presented at Analyst Day, and since October it stood at 670 million, not 596 million, which would make CDMA handsets sales in 2004 based on their estimates and Qualcomm's 21.9%, WCDMA handset sales 3.4%, for a composite 25.4%. Now that's pretty darned good, IMO, 'cdma' wise, and I don't see any reason to have to creatively embellish it, particularly since in the coming year as VW-40© handset sell-in more than doubles YoY while CDMA handset sell-in increase 9% to 13% the only way to show substantial 'cdma' share increase will be to become even more "creative." Tony appeared again at Lehman Brothers T4 Technology Conference on December 9, 2004 and gave an excellent presentation but showed that same creative slide again (#4) to individuals including Tim Luke and Stuart Jeffery's that have some inkling of what's going on in the industry, and although I did not hear the outright giggles that sometime accompany Qualcomm slides, I could just picture 50 or so eyes incredulously rolling in their sockets when they viewed it: qualcomm.com All indicators are that Strategy Analytics forecast of 670 million units sell-in for 2004 most recently revised in early October is pretty darned accurate and close to consensus. It appears we had another boom quarter of handset sell-in and sell through across technologies which is good for the sector and good for QCOM. Since I know that most participants on this board are avid fans of Nokia our compadres all will be exceptionally pleased to know that based on Tony's slides, Nokia, with a record 201 to 203 million handsets valued at some $30 Billion USD sold into channels in 2004 will finish the year with ~34% of units sold and ~19% of CDMA unit sales. Being somewhat more conservative, I had estimated only 30.1% to 30.5% of global sales and ~14% of (CDMA) 1xRTT sales, a very nice bounce back from the 29% global sell-in Strategy Analytics credited them with for H2 2004, but never in my wildest pondering during recent walkabouts or rollabouts did I realize they'd bounce back to 34%. global share [... and of course, in reality they didn't, despite a nice recovery after a huge Q1 share hit]. That's my mini-rant for the day. I look forward to your return volley and your defense of this totally unwarranted San Diego generated hyperbole, if you are, in fact, able to mount one. <ggg> Best, - eriQ -