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Strategies & Market Trends : Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?


To: NOW who wrote (21197)1/12/2005 7:52:34 PM
From: RealMuLan  Read Replies (2) | Respond to of 116555
 
If you are going to look at the China's stock market (not just Shanghai, ShenZhen too), then you should notice that they have been down continuously for the last 5 years. So can you conclude that for the last 5 years, the Chinese economy has been in a hard landing?



To: NOW who wrote (21197)1/12/2005 10:00:24 PM
From: mishedlo  Read Replies (3) | Respond to of 116555
 
saudi crude cuts are bogus
So says BI on the FOOL in this post

The Saudis cut heavy sour crudes, the same ones they have had trouble selling. The Saudis haven't been able to sell all of that crude they have been producing, hence they cut it. A very simple easy to see story.



To: NOW who wrote (21197)1/12/2005 10:13:33 PM
From: mishedlo  Respond to of 116555
 
grain report
CORN

Hi, this is Tim Hannagan its Wednesday January 12 and the markets are closed. Our U.S.D.A. monthly crop report came out at 7:30 a.m. central time putting our 2004 final corn production at 11.807 b.b. up from the Nov. report of 11.741 a year ago of 10.114 and our average pre report guess of 11.753. Carryover stocks or our ending inventory for the start of next falls Sept.1 harvest was put at 1.960 b.b. versus 1.843 last month. Stocks on hand as of Dec.1 were 9.449 b.b. versus 7.954 a year ago. Everything went up a little but when your talking about a 11 plus b.b. crop a million bushels either way means nothing. As I noted on my last report this U.S.D.A. crop report would only be a minor report that the trade would wait for to get out of the way before re-selling the market. Well, a 6 cent lower close brought us down to our 7 week contract lows. Next support is 1.96 then 1.91 and worst case scenario 1.85. With domestic deed lots expanding hog, chicken and cattle numbers, commercial grain elevators look to step in and buy corn around the 1.90 to 1.93 area and stop the large spec, and fund traders and post a near term low. On a break below 1.97 look to take profits on the Feb. put option leg of the trade I recommended going into the report.

BEANS

The U.S.D.A. put our final 2004 bean production at 3.141 b.b. up from a year ago of 2.454, under our last report of 3.150and just under the average pre report trade guess of 3.149. Stocks on hand as of Dec.1 were put at 2.305 b.b. versus 1.689 a year ago but our carry over or ending stocks for next falls harvest were dropped from 460 m.b. last month to 435. It's a bearish report but not as bearish as they thought. After a 30 cent rally off last weeks low on short covering traders and funds took last weeks profit and re sold short again today posting a 9.6 cent lower close. It wasn't all the bearish report as supply side news is old but weather related issues in South America. Northern Argentina and Southern Brazil have been very dry as they enter their key yield development time. After marginal rainfall over the weekend taking away some drought fear, gurus like WXRISK.COM called for much bigger rainfall. Sunday into Tuesday. This brought on the heavy selling late in the session. Weather issues are 75% of our pricing influence into March 1 and demand 25%. March has support at 5.30 then 5.20. 5.18 to 5.25 still looks to be a low range that would be worst case scenario as demand remain robust, farmers continue to hold tight to beans on the farm and fear of further South American Asian rust problems prevail. I still expect early Jan. into Feb. rally as I notes on my final year end report.

WHEAT

The U.S.D.A. report put all winter wheat variety planted acres at 41.6 m.a. down 4% from the year prior. The varieties read like this. Hard red winter 30.5 versus 30.7 a year ago. Soft red winter wheat 6.6 versus 8.2 and white wheat 4.5 versus 4.3 m.a a year ago. Reductions in the H.R.W. areas came in Texas and Oklahoma. S.R.W. areas showing declines were Missouri, Illinois, Ohio, and W. Virginia. White wheat increases came in all the far northwest states around Oregon. This number of 41.6 was well under the average pre report trade guess of 43.2 and lowest estimate of 42.3 m.a. They raised our ending stocks for the start of our June 1 harvest to 583 m.b.versus 553 the month prior as they expect less feed and seed use. The last report was our quarterly stocks inventory at 1.431 b.b. versus 1.520 a year ago. There's all your supply and inventory numbers. Now, forget them as the market will now refocus on demand fundamentals until March when our winter wheat breaks dormancy and yields are determined. A two cent higher open gave way to a 4.4 cent break at midsession before setting near unchanged. March has support at 3.00 then 2.95 and worst case scenario of 2.80. Resistance is 3.15. Unless demand surfaces its more probable than not we will move lower, Seasonally we turn down into late January. Consider buying a March 3.05 put for 8 cent or $400. Offset on a close over 3.15 on the futures, your risk is only about $200.




To: NOW who wrote (21197)1/12/2005 11:03:10 PM
From: mishedlo  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 116555
 
Level 3 to Cut Up to 12 Percent of Jobs
Wednesday January 12, 2:58 pm ET
By Sandy Shore, AP Business Writer
Information Services Provider Level 3 to Cut Up to 12 Percent of Work Force by End of Month

DENVER (AP) -- Information services provider Level 3 Communications Inc., still struggling to recover from the telecommunications bust, said Wednesday it would eliminate up to 12 percent of its overall work force by month's end.

Between 500 and 600 jobs will be eliminated in the company's communications business, which sells wholesale services to Internet service providers. Nearly 3,700 of the company's 5,000 employees worldwide work in its communications business.
DISD considers job cuts to slash deficit
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dallas.bizjournals.com

The Dallas Independent School District is looking at ways to trim a $15.8 million deficit, including cutting 400 jobs and eliminating a tax break.
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Plastics-maker Tupperware Corp. is cutting 250 jobs at its Hemingway, S.C.-based factory -- about half of the plant's total work force.
It's the third layoff in less than two years at the facility, the only U.S.-based manufacturer for the Orlando-based storage-container company. Smaller layoffs were announced in April and July last year, and in the fall of 2003.

"As we evaluate our capacity, we want to make sure and use our resources in the most cost-effective way possible," Jane Garrard, a company spokeswoman, said Tuesday. Tupperware will have $6.8 million in expenses related to the job cuts, plus an additional cost of $2.4 million to relocate equipment, the company said in a filing with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission. The move is expected to save the company about $6 million a year.

The plant, which opened in 1976, supplied 75 percent of the plastic bowls, kitchenware and other Tupperware products in North America.
Although the facility will still produce some products, such as two-toned plasticware and high-tech, polycarbonate items, most of its operations will be allocated to overseas plants. Tupperware has 15 factories worldwide, some of which will absorb Hemingway's production.

orlandosentinel.com
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250, Teradyne Connection Systems
Published: Wednesday, Jan. 12, 2005

nashuatelegraph.com

NASHUA - Teradyne Connection Systems is cutting about 250 jobs worldwide, 200 of which will be in Nashua, as economic conditions show no signs of improving in the electronic contract manufacturing business.
The jobs being cut are in manufacturing, and all three shifts were notified Monday and Tuesday, said Tom Newman, Teradyne’s vice president of communications.
Some manufacturing will remain in Nashua, mostly in the form of prototypes and more complex, high-end products.
“This has been going on for a couple of years now,” Newman said. “In order to remain competitive, we have to move more manufacturing to lower-cost areas such as Mexico and Asia.”

The 250 jobs being eliminated represent 10 percent of Teradyne Connection Systems’ work force, Newman said.
Research and product development will be the focus of the company’s Nashua division and its counterpart in Dublin, Ireland, because developing new products is key to the company’s future, he said.
Teradyne Inc., the parent company of Teradyne Connection Systems, is also laying off another 70 workers in other divisions, and plans to vacate a factory in Poway, Calif., according to company officials and documents filed Tuesday with the Securities and Exchange Commission.

The company expects to incur charges of about $11 million relating to the 320 layoffs and the closure of the California plant, according to SEC documents. Newman said the employees who are being laid off will receive severance packages, including help in getting new jobs.
Nashua-based Teradyne Connection Systems, which makes connectors and backplane systems, is a division of Teradyne Inc., which makes test automation equipment and is based in Boston.
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city of detroit to fire 686
Jan. 12, 2005 12:08 PM
crainsdetroit.com

Facing a $230 million deficit in the coming budget year, Mayor Kwame Kilpatrick is expected to announce Wednesday night on radio and television his plans to lay off 686 city workers, limit city bus service, sell all city cars and cut nonunion and appointee pay by 10 percent.

No layoffs are expected in the police and fire departments