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Strategies & Market Trends : Ask Vendit Off-Topic Questions -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: sandintoes who wrote (3871)	1/14/2005 2:17:56 PM
From: Jill	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 8752

AAPL really seems to be flirting with its new support/resistance. I'm just watching it as I feel nervous. It'll probably close about 70 but it has been dipping down. I'd like to play some calls but I want to be sure to see it holds 70, and I still don't feel quite confident.

To: sandintoes who wrote (3871)	1/15/2005 3:10:54 AM
From: Walkingshadow	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 8752

Thanks, a very interesting analysis. I am skeptical about the analogies with the DVD markets and so forth. This does not take into consideration a simple fact: that people weren't buying DVD players in 1999 because there was no need to. They still watched movies on VCR tapes mostly in those days. The history of deployment of technology products into mass markets has always been the same---high prices at first, and that allows both recoup of R&D and intitial profits, followed by rapid drop in prices as R&D costs are fully recouped and all that left is a small per capita revenue stream from an increasingly large base. Eventually, if just the technology is sold, the market becomes more or less saturated and stable, and new products are sold mostly because old ones need to be replace. But the market becomes mature, and revenues linear, unless there is some other driver of revenue streams. Sure, the dropping price led to more penetration into mass markets. No question. But there is also no question that AAPL is well aware of these issues. They have demonstrated impressive marketing saavy. The didn't just fall off the turnip truck business-wise. I suspect the plan is to have their cake and eat it too. That is, they will learn from the cell phone markets, and continue to drop the iPod prices, but also continue to innovate and charge top dollar for the high-end full bells and whistles versions. That way, they capture both markets. The thing that is different from the cell phone analogy is that they are selling the appliance and they are the sole service provider. The consumer has no other options. It would be like Nokia selling phones AND service, and Nokia is the only service provider around that their phones will work on. But the more skepticism the better, as far as I am concerned. This has always been the case for every truly successful company (yes, also for unsuccessful ones), and bodes well for AAPLs future, IMHO. T