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Strategies & Market Trends : The Epic American Credit and Bond Bubble Laboratory -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: ild who wrote (24680)	1/14/2005 1:52:36 PM
From: NOW	Respond to of 110194

sounds like he is in agreement with Russ here that they wont be able to keep their hands off the liitle boys for long

To: ild who wrote (24680)	1/14/2005 2:19:57 PM
From: patron_anejo_por_favor	Respond to of 110194

<<if they really do that ( act to invert the curve ) , the following has a high probability of happening: the gold bull market will be over for a while. at least a medium sized financial catastrophe, if not worse, will occur>> ....which is precisely why it won't happen. These clowns would rather chew their own arm off than allow the markets to ever clear. It'll take an exogenous event or a major credit player blow up to get the job done, don't count on (this) Fed to do it.

To: ild who wrote (24680)	1/14/2005 2:26:22 PM
From: russwinter	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 110194

<since everybody has shifted the maturity spectrum of their debt downward which increasingly necessitates ever bigger rollovers of maturing debt > In the case of the US Treasury itself, this is illustrated in spades on page 37 of this bulletin: fms.treas.gov This just shows public debt, privately held, but we can that the US govt, has jammed more and more securitites into shorter maturities. In 2000 avg maturity was 6 yrs 2 months, and now it's 4 yrs 11 months. So as these short dated issues rollover, the cost of the debt just creeps up. In 2001, 66.6% of all treasuries were under 5 years, and now it's 72.5%. Part of the manipulation of the 10 year, has been to push supply in the short end as the yield curve was steep, so now as the curve flattens rapidly, the bill comes due for that.