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Strategies & Market Trends : Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?


To: TH who wrote (21648)1/18/2005 12:15:38 PM
From: CalculatedRisk  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 116555
 
Treasury International Capital (TIC) Data for November
January 18, 2005
js-2198
treas.gov

Treasury International Capital (TIC) data for October are released today and posted on the U.S. Treasury web site (www.treas.gov/tic). The next release date, which will report on data for December, is scheduled for February 15, 2005.

Long-Term Domestic Securities

Gross purchases of domestic securities by foreigners were $1,411.7 billion in November, exceeding gross sales of domestic securities by foreigners of $1,312.0 billion during the same month.

Foreign purchases of domestic securities reached $99.7 billion on a net basis in November, relative to $65.4 billion during the previous month. Private net flows reached $71.8 billion in November. Net private purchases of Treasury Bonds and Notes increased to $11.0 billion from $5.2 billion the preceding month. Net private purchases of Government Agency Bonds were $24.4 billion, up from $22.9 billion the previous month. Net private purchases of Corporate Bonds rose to $23.5 billion from $18.2 billion the previous month. Net private purchases of Equities rose to $13.0 billion from $4.2 billion.

Official net purchases of U.S. securities were $27.9 billion in November, relative to $14.9 billion in October. Official net purchases of Treasury Bonds and Notes of $21.0 billion accounted for the bulk of official inflows in November, up from $15.6 billion the previous month.

Long-Term Foreign Securities

Gross purchases of foreign securities owned by U.S. residents were $270.0 billion in November, relative to gross sales of foreign securities to U.S. residents of $288.7 billion during the same month.

Gross sales of foreign securities to U.S. residents exceeded purchases by $18.7 billion, highlighting net foreign sales of $16.1 billion in Foreign Equities and $2.6 billion in Foreign Bonds to U.S. residents.

Net Long-Term Securities Flows

Net foreign purchases of both domestic and foreign long-term securities from U.S. residents were $81.0 billion in November compared with $48.3 billion in October. Net foreign purchases of long-term securities were $827.8 billion in the 12-months through November 2004 as compared to $647.4 billion during the twelve months through November 2003.

The full data set, including adjustments for repayments of principal on asset-backed securities, as well as historical series, can be found on the TIC web site, www.treas.gov/tic/.

SEE CHART AT LINK:
treas.gov



To: TH who wrote (21648)1/18/2005 12:26:34 PM
From: mishedlo  Respond to of 116555
 
Time to pull out of Palm Beach
By Kevin Allison
Published: January 18 2005 02:00 | Last updated: January 18 2005 02:00

Uncertainty breeds opportunity, as any astute businessman knows. And so it should come as no surprise that, amid the raging debate over whether the real estate market is nearing its bursting point, an entire industry has sprung up to help people manage the risk of falling house prices.

With opportunists racing to bring real estate derivatives to market and wealth managers talking up alternative asset allocation strategies, one tried and true approach to managing an appreciated asset tends to get short shrift. What if that Aspen ranch is looking a bit overvalued and you just want to sell the thing?

Brokers, economists and wealth managers agree that sellers would be hard-pressed to find a better time to sell. "The cash is there right now," says David Lereah, chief economist with the National Association of Realtors, a real estate industry organisation. "The fundamentals are very good for the high-end marketplace."

The median price of a single family home in Palm Beach, Florida, soared more than 40 per cent last year, according to the Florida Association of Realtors. Several other exclusive resort areas around the country posted similar rises.

However, Angelo Campanile, managing director of real estate at Bessemer Trust, the wealth managers, cautions that the good times might not last. "Today's market might be near the peak. I think within the next year we will start to see the length of time it takes to sell a house begin to go up, and eventually that will start to bring prices down."

Unloading any property can be a harrowing experience. But when it is an exclusive vacation property that is going on the block, things get more complex. Finding buyers for a multi-million dollar home can be difficult and vacation homes are subject to capital gains tax. As a result, there is near universal agreement that, after the decision to sell has been taken, the next two steps of the selling process are the most important. First find a broker. Then get on the phone to your accountant.

"The right broker needs to match the property and the sellers," says Mr Campanile. "There needs to be a good personal relationship. You don't have to be friends but you need to deal with a broker you feel comfortable with."

Working with a broker has a number of benefits regardless of a home's sale price. But for wealthy sellers, the limited pool of potential buyers means that having a broker with the right connections is particularly important.

"People in the market for a multi-million dollar resort home don't come running through the door every day," says Tim van Camp, broker at French & French Sotheby's International Realty in Santa Fe, New Mexico. "If you have a discretionary buyer and a discretionary seller it's a bit of a juggling act putting them together."

Exclusive realtors such as Sotheby's, Brown Harris Stevens and the Corcoran Group all offer their local affiliates ways to access wealthy potential buyers through their national and international advertising campaigns, printed brochures, and, increasingly, the web. That exposure can create liquidity that adds tens of thousands of dollars to the sale price of a home.

Once a buyer expresses interest in a property, a broker can make discreet enquiries into whether he or she is financially qualified to make an offer. "A seller who has an expensive property doesn't want to be there just as a chamber of commerce showcase," says Mr van Camp. The typical fee for such services runs at 6 to 7 per cent of a property's sale price. But brokers and wealth managers insist you are better off paying the fee than going it alone.

Once you have chosen a broker, the next step is to get in touch with your accountant to find out about the tax implications of selling a vacation home. The US government levies a capital gains tax of 15 per cent against the profit made on the sale of vacation homes, minus closing costs. Several states take an additional withholding at the time of sale that can become permanent at the end of the tax year. Non-US citizens can face additional tax burdens.

One way around taking a hit on capital gains is to convert a residential vacation home into a rent-producing investment property. But that can take up to two years and can leave owners burdened with hefty management fees.

David Suss, managing partner at the accountants Maryanov, Madsen, Gordon & Campbell in Palm Springs, California, says that, for owners of lifestyle properties, the hassle of becoming a landlord is rarely worth it. "You've got to make a commitment to becoming a landlord for an extended time, probably a couple of years." Mr Suss says landlords can run foul of tax authorities if they rent to a family member or if they use an investment property for more than 14 days a year.

Mr Suss says he tells his clients to be thankful that the capital gains rate is as low as it is. "It's only 15 per cent on the profit, which is really a drop in the bucket on apercentage basis." Moreover, capital gains on the sale of a property can be offset by losses on the sale of other types of assets, including stocks and bonds. Thus, a seller eager to cash out of a losing position in the stock market can use his capital losses to offset the capital gains on the sale of a vacation home.

Once a seller has chosen a broker and worked through the tax implications of a sale, it is time to get down to brass tacks, such as deciding whether the furniture will be sold along with the house.

"If there is something very special that is not going to go with the house, remove it before you show it," says Ruth Krinke, a real estate broker in Steamboat Springs, Colorado. After that, she says, just let the market work its magic.



To: TH who wrote (21648)1/18/2005 12:39:44 PM
From: mishedlo  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 116555
 
GS on the FOOL writes on Detroit Housing

Although it is against my instincts to buy a house now, this weekend we looked at a few houses just to see what is "out there." The reason? We are expecting our second child, and this house is already too small. We have been ready to move for a while, but for one reason or another, the timing has not been right. Now we are READY.

I called the realtor who helped us find a house when we were transferred to the Detroit area almost 5 years ago. She was an excellent negotiator and had a good sense of which houses were the best investments, and time has proven her correct.

When we met her on Sunday and told her our expectations, as well as the fact that we fully expected to have a 20% down payment, she looked at us like we were aliens. Her response was, "Well, if we could get you in your dream home, what would you be willing to go up to?" and then gave us her spiel on interest-only loans, including "that's what most people around here are doing." I was polite and did not roll my eyes. By the way, she did NOT give us this line 5 years ago.

I know that there have been many discussions around here about the pros and cons of interest-only loans, but she wasn't talking about investing philosophy; her point was that we should max ourselves out and finance our "dream house" that we could barely afford through an interest only loan. We asked her about the situation in Metro Detroit, knowing that it hasn't been good, and she said that there have been quite a few foreclosures "since 9/11." Well, that's just silly, but it sounds good.

So, after that we went to some open houses. Let's call them drive-by open houses, because we didn't go in. Our response was pretty consistent -- that shoddily build McBabyMansion is how much?? (The best one said "overlooking a nature preserve" that was actually an old dump site complete with methane gas pipes poking up through every hill). Something is seriously out of whack. The thing is, we earn a good living and save well, so who is buying these houses? It can ONLY be done with creative financing and low interest rates. There is no rhyme or reason anymore. And this is the "conservative" Midwest where there is supposedly no housing bubble.

So, we both had a really bad feeling about the whole situation. On the one hand, there are numerous foreclosures, and on the other hand, most available houses are still priced for the interest-only crowd who haven't gotten the message yet. We have decided to buy only if we can get a foreclosed or almost-foreclosed house and it is perfect for us. Otherwise, an addition (or renting, if we can find the right place) will have to do. Then we'll have the cash to snap something up when the fun starts.

GS



To: TH who wrote (21648)1/18/2005 1:29:37 PM
From: Chaka  Read Replies (2) | Respond to of 116555
 
Would the repatriation of foreign funds by U.S. corporations be counted in this?



To: TH who wrote (21648)1/18/2005 1:31:19 PM
From: Haim R. Branisteanu  Respond to of 116555
 
I speculate that we need also to see the other side of the coin were the USD just looked cheap for a trade