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Politics : Foreign Affairs Discussion Group -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: michael97123 who wrote (156883)	1/24/2005 10:12:01 AM
From: GST	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 281500

<If somehow iraq works out, do you think GST will commit hari kari?> The question is not whether something can work out in Iraq, the question is what do you do to improve the odds of meaningful gains and how do you achieve gains at the lowest cost. We are paying an extremely high price and getting low odds of anything worthwhile coming out of it (indeed, we have created a larger threat than existed before) -- while doing lots of collateral damage to others and ourselves. We made some bad choices and that has cost us dearly. So far, your tactical predictions for Bush have been fairly accurate -- Bush is getting closer by the day to declaring victory and "leaving" by disengaging from direct contact if not leaving altogether.

To: michael97123 who wrote (156883)	1/24/2005 3:00:08 PM
From: Nadine Carroll	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 281500

I have no great hopes for this 'hudna'. Sure Hamas needs a breather but their credibility is too tied up with killing Israelis so it hurts their position to stop. Besides which, Hizbullah and Hamas-Syria have a vote, and they say 'keep up the killing'. So my prediction fwiw is a short period of calm, broken by random attacks that kill Israelis by ones and twos (Hamas knows that those are freebies, as far as the world press goes), until something more major goes boom and Israel responds in force. Then the usual yelling and blame-passing. To really impose a cease-fire Abu Mazen is going to have to have his Altalena moment, and he, like all the Pals, make it plain that he just can't do it. Not so long as the resulting charge: "Jew-lover! lackey of Israel! traitor!" is deadly in Pal politics.