Silicon Investor (SI) -- The First Internet Community

STOCKTALK

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor. We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community. If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.

Pastimes : SARS - what next? -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Maurice Winn who wrote (1014)	1/31/2005 6:44:40 AM
From: Henry Niman	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 1070

Mq, You are missing quite a bit, in part because of the impact of SARS. There is a lot of under-reporting in avian flu. 1918 pandemic flu was frequently mis-diagnosed as cholera, dengue, and typhoid, so there are lots of ways to hide bird flu cases. Also have secondary infections. Here are some examples. Retrospective study in Thailand found 21 lab confirmed cases, 14 fatal. None of these are in total. Also had more suspect cases that didn't have samples for confirmation. Many of the cases give false negatives and only come to light when there are clusters. Thailand had plenty of human cases last season, but none reported for this season although reports from Nov indicated flu patients from Laos and Cambodia streaming across the border into Thailand (100 per day). Now Cambodian cases in Vietnam starting to be acknowledged news.google.com after many cases coming across boarder but no testing. Cases in teh philippines are called menigo-like illness (meningococcemia is a secondary infection of influenza). In Korea WHO and FAO won't even acknowldeg cases in swine. The list goes on and on.

To: Maurice Winn who wrote (1014)	3/16/2005 1:04:48 AM
From: Maurice Winn	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 1070

Graph of H5N1 deaths. x = deaths [cumulative] 19 Jan xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx 37 25 Jan xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx 41 02 Feb xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx 42 11 Mar xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx 46 Here is the sars graph for comparison: x = 10 deaths. Cumulative deaths 26 Feb ? ..5 Mar x 12 Mar x 19 Mar x 26 Mar xx ...2 Apr xxxxx ...9 Apr xxxxxxxxxx .16 Apr xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx .23 Apr xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx .30 Apr xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx ..6 May xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx [478] Mqurice