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Politics : Foreign Affairs Discussion Group -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: michael97123 who wrote (157011)	1/26/2005 1:03:47 PM
From: Neocon	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 281500

Yes, I think a successful election will lead to a conflict within insurgent ranks, over the advisability of continuing in the same vein. Those who think they can make progress in politics will make their peace, and sell out the rest.

To: michael97123 who wrote (157011)	1/26/2005 5:34:13 PM
From: Bilow	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 281500

Hi michael97123; Re: "Do you see an impending post election split in the insurgency itself with some nationalists choosing to play in the new government having gained some leverage in the non-participation in the election? I have this feeling that the nationalists may end up doing/attempting a Black September on the insurgents in order to gain favor and for ultimate self protection as well." I think that this is unlikely. From what I understand, the Iraqi people are quite upset that the US is beating the crap out of places like Falloujah. That makes it unlikely that a new Iraqi government would go beyond what we have done. Instead, I would expect them to put out peace feelers and negotiatiors. No matter what happens in the elections, there will still be an insurgency directed at us. As long as we stay in Iraq, we are a unifying force in the same way that a lightening rod protects a building. I don't think that there will be a civil war in Iraq until after we leave. But these are just guesses, I really have no idea. -- Carl