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Technology Stocks : Advanced Micro Devices - Moderated (AMD) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Jim McMannis who wrote (149165)	1/27/2005 2:35:00 AM
From: pgerassi	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 275872

Dear Jim: Fab 36 has a full production rate of 3000WPW IIRC. 65nm die sizes would be about the same ratio of 90nm that 90nm was of 130nm. The latter is 84mm2/145mm2 = 58%. The estimated 90nm die sizes for 256KB, 512KB, 1MB and 2x1MB are 69mm2, 84mm2, 115mm2 and 210mm2 respectively. Thus the 65nm equivalents assuming straight shrinks are, 40mm2, 49mm2, 67mm2 and 122mm2. Assuming 80% yields, the GDPW of each are about 1,288, 890, 750 and 394. At 3000WPW, that makes for a quarterly production going flat out of 50.2, 34.7, 29.2 and 15.4 million. At 256KB K8s, Fab 36 at 65nm could make 100% of demand alone. With 512KBs, Fab 36 and Fab 30 could make enough for 100% of demand. With 1MB Fab 36 could supply 60% of demand and with dual core 1MB, it could supply 30%. Fab 30 could supply 50% of demand with 90nm 256KB K8s. Of course, AMD will likely not see those yields until 2007 in Fab 36. Small wonder Intel wants to push cache sizes given the above. Pete