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Technology Stocks : Advanced Micro Devices - Moderated (AMD) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: kpf who wrote (149321)	1/28/2005 8:41:52 AM
From: niceguy767	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 275872

"However, historically AMD tends to be valued at book when in times when it looses money. Credits for this obeservation go to Hans Mosesmann - although he did not say that recently, but back in 2001 when he was with Pru iirc." Historically, AMD has cloned INTC. Going forward exactly the opposite seems to be occurring! The point I'm getting at here is that at no time in AMD's past when at or near breakeven, has their earnings potential been so great. I suspect that we'll know within the next 2 to 3 weeks whether $1B in 2005 server revenues is realistic. If so, AMD is worth triple its current price owing to the earnings expansion associated with such huge server marketshare growth! "Crucial point for your call on stockprice will be if AMD can keep the nose over water in the next couple of quarters. Which appears close to hopeless from what I model." You're being too influenced by the ihub doomsayer brigade. Increasingly, it is becoming apparent to analysts (i.e. Osha) and Wall St. (i.e. over 400M shares changing hands in January) that AMD's Opteron advantage is for real and, consequently, AMD's upside is huge. Increasingly, with each new AMD product intro, the case for "AMD huge earnings growth potential" is strengthened. In fact, inevitability of such huge earnings growth potential may be the takeaway by Wall St. from the imminent SUNW and HP new product intro's. What I'm getting at here is that there may be a perception change away from near term earnings to huge upside earnings growth potential in the minds of "valuation model builders" with these new product intros!

To: kpf who wrote (149321)	1/28/2005 12:35:26 PM
From: dougSF30	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 275872

Well, Q1 has a very good shot at being GAAP profitable. We did run through the calculations last week on this thread, and going from Q4 to Q1, there is a net bump of $49M + $42M - $20M = $71M to GAAP earnings, assuming gross margins remain the same across CPG, and flash and PCG post the same operating income. With CPG this seems likely, as revs should be flat to down slightly, and ASPs up slightly. Now, flash-- can they hold the losses to the same level as in Q1? Perhaps not quite. But they have ~$40M of downside room over Q4 in flash before they would repeat a GAAP loss in Q1.