Silicon Investor (SI) -- The First Internet Community

STOCKTALK

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor. We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community. If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.

Strategies & Market Trends : Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: mishedlo who wrote (22708)	2/2/2005 5:39:36 PM
From: Crimson Ghost	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 116555

Your assumption that China and Japan will continue financing huge US deficits come what may happens to be the consensus expectation. So you agree with this consensus but disagree with the modestly bearish bond consensus. Do you REALLY think the Asians will continue supporting gross US excesses come what may.? Perhaps there really is a Santa Claus after all.

To: mishedlo who wrote (22708)	2/3/2005 2:23:13 AM
From: John Vosilla	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 116555

I am sorry. Your RELIGION requires an enormous parlay of things to happen while mine requires Greenspan hiking until housing sinks which will destroy money and credit. Just look overseas for the possible answer. Isn't the yield curve already flat in UK and Australia with housing already falling yet the stock market is at a 2.5 year high in UK and all time high in Australia? Look for a major housing downturn in our coastal bubble areas and certain oversupplied property types to crash within many of those markets in US. Will it be enough to destroy money and credit (without a major backup in long rates and adjustment to stock P/E and real estate cap rates) and lead us into a depression? Highly doubtful from my perspective.