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Strategies & Market Trends : Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?


To: Dale Baker who wrote (22773)2/3/2005 10:42:42 AM
From: Knighty Tin  Read Replies (2) | Respond to of 116555
 
Raising the low pay and treating the military less like total crap would also help. But even so, you can't send a bunch of green weeds into Iran or Syria. They would have to mingle the weeds into experienced units and that is not an immediate process.



To: Dale Baker who wrote (22773)2/3/2005 11:25:01 AM
From: mishedlo  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 116555
 
ECB´s Trichet says sharp house price rises in some euro zone countries unwelcome
Thursday, February 3, 2005 4:00:07 PM

ECB's Trichet says sharp house price rises in some euro zone countries unwelcome FRANKFURT (AFX) - European Central Bank president Jean-Claude Trichet said the sharp rises in house prices in some euro zone countries are unwelcome

He rejected the argument that strong house price growth could be positive for consumer confidence and said the sharp rises in prices in some countries are unlikely to be sustainable

"In some parts of the euro area we see (house price) phenomenona that are not, in our view, sustainable and certainly are not necessarily welcome," Trichet told the ECB's regular news conference

He said the ECB is not alarmed by house price inflation in the euro zone as a whole, but the rises in some markets require it to be vigilant

Real estate prices have risen strongly in Spain and Ireland for several years, and prices in France have also started to advance sharply recently. But property markets in Germany and Austria have been flat for a long period

Trichet said robust lending growth has contributed to some of the price rises

But he warned: "The combination of ample liquidity and strong credit growth could, in some parts of the euro area, become a source of unsustainable price increases in property markets." And he said central banks have to react to asset price bubbles before they burst, not afterwards

"There are risks there which could materialise and we have to be vigilant," he said

M3 money supply growth is also growing strongly and Trichet said this can no longer be explained by portfolio shifts out of riskier investments and into assets included in M3. And while the resulting overhang of excess liquidity will not necessarily lead to inflation in the short term, it will increase inflation pressures in the long run, so vigilance over monetary growth is also required, he said

Trichet noted that spreads in bond markets are now very low, and said this appears to be symptomatic of an underpricing of some risks

Overall bond yields are also low because of low levels of real interest rates and inflation expectations, and the central bank will therefore need to be vigilant over the possibility of a shift in the assessment of risks by bond markets, he said

"I will not be alarming but I must observe that we have perhaps an appreciation of risks which is quite low...at the European and global level," he said

forexstreet.com



To: Dale Baker who wrote (22773)2/3/2005 11:47:42 AM
From: mishedlo  Respond to of 116555
 
Pay Radio Becomes Personal
[Beginning of the end for I-Pod? Mish]

By DAVID POGUE

Published: February 3, 2005

HE First Rule of Techno-Pop: Any popular, free medium will eventually be ruined by ads, repetition and lowest-common-denominator junk. It happened to network TV, it happened to the Web and it certainly happened to radio.

The Second Rule: Any free medium that has been ruined by ads will eventually encounter competition from a not-free alternative. It happened with cable TV and, more recently, satellite radio.

It may blow your mind to think that over four million people are now paying $10 or $13 a month just to listen to the radio. (Those are the fees for XM and Sirius Satellite Radio. Discounts are available if you pay in advance, own more than one radio and so on.)

Truth is, though, that what they're getting isn't very much like radio at all. They're getting 65 music channels, free of commercials and endless teenybopper-top-10 repetition, and 40 to 50 talk channels. (The talk channels have some ads, but nowhere near the average of 20 minutes per hour that you'll hear on AM radio.)

Because they don't have to appeal to a mainstream audience to attract advertisers, the expert-fanatic channel hosts can "narrowcast" tightly targeted musical styles (like pop, acoustic, hip-hop, country, movie soundtracks, classical) and nichey talk topics (like comedy, sports, advice, old-time radio dramas, audio books, religion and children).

Satellite radio subscribers can also glance at the radio itself to see the name of the current song, performer and channel name. The sound is better than FM radio, though not as good as a CD or an iPod. And because the signal emanates from space, you don't lose the station as you drive from city to city. (The exception: the signal fades whenever the radio can't see the sky for more than five seconds, like in a long tunnel. The exception to the exception: in big cities, ground-based repeater antennas keep the signal going even in the concrete canyons.)

Until recently, you could buy satellite receivers in several sizes and shapes, like car dashboard installations, stereo components and boomboxes. But now there's a self-contained, hand-held format that offers a whole new set of possibilities.

The first pocket-size satellite radio, available for XM radio only, is called the Delphi MyFi. (It will be joined later this year by additional models for XM and Sirius. That's good, because the rivals offer different services. XM has Major League Baseball and 24-hour traffic and weather reports for 21 major cities; Sirius has the National Football League, some National Public Radio, traffic and weather for 10 cities and, coming soon, Howard Stern.)

Imagine having a gadget the size of an iPod, but with 120 thematic playlists that draw from every song ever recorded. Imagine the freedom of listening in your car, at home or just walking along the street. Imagine having a five-hour radio recorder built in, so that you can listen even indoors without an antenna.

Now keep on imagining; the Delphi MyFi isn't all that.

For starters, it's not the size of an iPod. It's larger and heavier, closer to half a sandwich than to a deck of cards. (On the plus side, that size accommodates a huge, black-and-white screen filled with legible, useful readouts.)

The MyFi is nowhere near as simple and self-contained as an iPod, either. It has 22 brightly illuminated buttons (including 10 numeric keys) and a thumb wheel on the side. Its box contains so many attachments and parts, you feel like you're opening the Sopwith Camel biplane model kit you got for your 10th birthday.

Those 20 accessories include three antennas. One is for use indoors next to a window. One is tiny and magnetic, for use on the roof of your car. The third, if you can believe it, clips to your body so that you can keep the MyFi in your pocket when you're out hiking, mountain climbing or shoveling snow. (You don't always need this human-clipped antenna. The radio's internal built-in antenna is often sufficient, especially if you keep the MyFi upright and exposed to the sky - attached to your belt with the included clip, for example.)

The scuttlebutt online is that a number of people bought the MyFi and then returned it. Their comments make clear, though, that they were primarily unhappy with its reception. Clearly, many didn't understand that the radio doesn't work unless it can see the satellite, meaning that there's generally no reception indoors unless you trail the long antenna wire to a window. MyFi may be billed as a hand-held portable radio, but it still relies on a direct line of sight to the sky.

The accessory cornucopia also includes three ways to attach the MyFi to your car's dashboard, and two ways to play it through your car's sound system: a built-in FM transmitter, which is supposed to send the sound to an unused frequency on your car's radio, and a tape-player cassette adapter. FM transmitters are notoriously iffy - in my case, the MyFi's built-in one never did work - but, although the sound quality may not please the most discerning audiophiles, the cassette-adapter approach works 100 percent of the time.

The MyFi's biggest breakthrough is its built-in recorder, which works something like a TiVo for radio. When you hear a song or a talk show you like, you can tap a button to record it; you can also program the radio to record shows unattended on a timer (maximum: two recordings). The memory holds about five hours of music or six hours of talk, which you can play back later when you're indoors, underground or underwater.

It's a brilliant idea, but it could stand improvement. When you record, say, two hours of music, the radio lists the parade of songs by name, so you can jump directly to your favorites. But there's no rewind or fast-forward, so you can't start anywhere but at the beginning of a tune. You can't delete just one of your recordings, either; erasing the radio's memory is all or nothing. And there's a lag of several seconds after you touch the Record button, so it's virtually impossible to capture a song from the beginning.

Those rough edges are especially peculiar considering how completely Delphi otherwise thought things through. For example, the five-hour rechargeable battery is removable and replaceable. You can opt to have sports scores or stock prices scroll across the bottom of the screen (your choice of teams and companies). The radio doubles as a clock and an alarm, and you can program it to alert you when a favorite song or band is playing on another channel. You even get a remote control, for use when the player is hooked up to your stereo or, presumably, when you've got a finicky back-seat D.J. in the car.

It would be nice if the MyFi were smaller and sleeker. The menus and controls are designed logically enough, but it would be nice if you didn't need the manual at all. It would certainly be nice if you could transfer your recordings to, say, a computer or a CD. (Yeah, I know - over the recording industry's dead body.)

Above all, it would be very, very nice if the MyFi didn't cost so much: about $300 when bought online, plus $10 a month for the service. For best results, explain it to your spouse as a $200 radio with a $100 superdeluxe accessory kit.

What ultimately saves the MyFi from winding up at the back of your gadget drawer, though, is the amazing entertainment that comes out of it. XM's programming is so rich, so constantly surprising, so far removed from the homogenized glop of broadcast radio, that you can overlook a whole host of hardware hitches. At one point, I actually walked twice around the block in the freezing cold just so I could hear the end of a radio drama on Channel 163.

All of which is just another way of stating the Third Rule of Techno-Pop: In radio, at least, you get what you pay for.

E-mail: Pogue@nytimes.com
tech2.nytimes.com



To: Dale Baker who wrote (22773)2/6/2005 4:02:02 PM
From: RealMuLan  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 116555
 
[Where would the US find those troops<g>]--"Seoul reveals new war scenario -- U.S. would send 690,000 troops"
The Associated Press Saturday, February 5, 2005
SEOUL The United States will dispatch 690,000 troops and 2,000 warplanes if war breaks out on the Korean Peninsula, according to South Korea's new defense policy paper that was released Friday.
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The defense white paper, which has been updated for the first time in four years, also removes 10-year-old references to Communist North Korea being the South's "main enemy," though it still calls the North a "direct military threat."
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The new white paper comes as South Korea tries to redefine the half-century-old confrontation with Communist North Korea as well as adjust its alliance with the United States.
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The commitment of U.S. troops in the event of war appears aimed at easing concerns that Washington's plan to expand the role of U.S. troops in the South from guarding against the North into rapid regional redeployments could create a security vacuum in the world's last remaining cold war flash point.
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Washington says its new strategy will bolster, rather than weaken, the allies' defense posture against the North.
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North Korea, which accuses the United States and South Korea of preparing to invade over its nuclear weapons programs, has added more artillery pieces and missiles to its Korean People's Army, already the world's fifth-largest, the South Korean white paper says.
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About 300 of the North's 1,000 long-range artillery and multiple-launch rockets were deployed along the border near Seoul.
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Those missiles, capable of raining down shells and rockets on the South Korean capital only 50 kilometers, or 31 miles, from the border, is the most formidable defense concern for South Korea.
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The number of North Korean troops remained unchanged at 11.7 million, but the North has reorganized its military to add eight new divisions, most of them units with missiles capable of hitting South Korea and Japan, the white paper said.
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For the first time in 10 years, the new white paper no longer refers to North Korea as the "main enemy." But it says that North Korea remains a "direct military threat with its conventional armed forces, weapons of mass destruction and forward deployment of its troops" along the demilitarized zone separating the two sides.
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The removal of the "main enemy" term is largely symbolic but reflects South Korea's efforts at fostering reconciliation with North Korea.
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If war broke out, 70 percent of all U.S. Marine, 50 percent of U.S. Air Force and 40 percent of U.S. Navy forces would concentrate on the Korean Peninsula, including several aircraft carriers that could strike North Korea's artillery units along the border, according to the white paper.
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"The reinforcement plan reflects a strong U.S. commitment to defending South Korea," the document says.
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On Thursday, U.S. and South Korean officials held a first round of talks aimed at readjusting the alliance according to a new U.S. strategy of reorganizing its forces worldwide into nimbler and more mobile units to deal better with new security threats like terrorism.
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The two allies have already agreed to pull back U.S. troops further from the border with North Korea and cut back the number of U.S. troops by one-third to 25,000 by 2008.
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Already armed with large stockpiles of chemical and biological weapons, the North is resisting U.S. pressure to give up its nuclear weapons programs. Three rounds of six-nation talks aimed at ending the programs produced no breakthroughs.
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The United States, the two Koreas, China, Japan and Russia are struggling to schedule a new round of talks.
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China envoy to visit North
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A Chinese envoy will visit North Korea this month on a mission to jump-start stalled six-way talks on North Korea's nuclear arms program, Agence France-Presse reported Friday quoting a senior South Korean official.
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The visit will come after the Lunar New Year holiday Feb. 9, said Chung Dong Young, South Korea's minister for unification.
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He declined to identify the Chinese envoy.
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South Korea's Yonhap news agency said the Chinese official visited North Korea in September on a similar mission. At that time, Li Changchun, a senior Chinese Communist Party official, was in Pyongyang.(AFP)
iht.com