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Gold/Mining/Energy : Big Dog's Boom Boom Room -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: jim_p who wrote (38990)	2/4/2005 1:32:21 PM
From: buckbldr	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 206272

jim p...This is a serious question. You seem to make your calls based upon well-studied research, and they are frequently on target...some seem to be off also. But do you have any opinions based on your personal analysis as to why PTEN this a.m. is behaving so CONTRARY to the rest of the driller mkt. It absolutely defies any logical reasoning that I can apply to it. I can find no news that can explain it. Respectfully, Buck

To: jim_p who wrote (38990)	2/5/2005 7:15:38 AM
From: GREENLAW4-7	Respond to of 206272

JP, the action in the OSX the last several weeks have been contrary to the past. Usually OSX rallies ahead of cold snap and then sells on first sign of warming trend. This weeks as Crude became soft OSX held and defended its position. I am not sure if we actually saw the reversal yesterday. Reversal's occur on a day when 52 week is taken out, then the stock retreats to almost the low of the day. I have been watching very close to add to my shorts and today was the first sign of WEAKNESS in a while. Last friday OSX showed some weakness but then bottomed monday and rallied since then. Earnings are still softer then the 96-97 rally so I would expect a top very soon. Regarding weather, I still believe we are having normal to warmer weather in the NE. I just wonder what happens once China shows anyside of slowdown. OSX could drop as you said faster then a rock. I added several shorts at the pop and I am green on these but total OSX short is at 35% . I would love to see 145 but just know if FUNDS will wait. VLO looks very interesting up here!

To: jim_p who wrote (38990)	2/5/2005 4:33:19 PM
From: profile_14	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 206272

jim_p, the following chart shows OSX top being 138.78, back at the beginning of spring in 2001. I think we are within striking distance, however, this time around we have another month and one-half to go. The earnings are coming in strong and if the sector continues to receive support, we could well test those highs. With incremental capacity at a marginal level, I think the excess gas inventories are not going to cause too much harm unless we have a serious slow down in the economy. Also, it would be interesting to see what percentage of the service stocks in the OSX, versus the OIH, service oil companies versus gas companies. The oil companies are going to stay busy as far as I can tell, while the gas companies might have some slack if folks believe inventories are not an issue going forward for a couple of months. Either way, prices are plenty high to encourage drilling on both oil and gas fields. Having said that, I have not seen a blow-off move on the sector, and therefore, I have a hard time believing we can suddenly fall off from an easy, steady rise coupled with minor corrections. I have not seen a strong news event or a conclusion to this situation that we face today with little incremental capacity available. So to summarize, I still think energy companies are going to enjoy a strong year, and calling a top, aside from a seasonal pattern, might be challenging without any external catalyst, such as a slow down, or significant dollar appreciation, such as one that could result subsequent from a large bond market sell off if the yield curve flattens too much or if the trade imbalances are not corrected.

To: jim_p who wrote (38990)	2/17/2005 7:35:48 AM
From: GREENLAW4-7	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 206272

JP, Inventories 10% higher then last year, Earnings still lower then peak of last BULL CYCLE, but index and stocks continue to act parabolic. What am I missing??? OSX always has substantial correction after 10-15% move we are now up from 115-140 with ZERO, and I repeat, ZERO pull back. RIG, I listened to the CC, and after it I knew that stock was over priced at 35-40, we are now at 48. RIG still has numerous RIGS not employed but analyst continue to think it should be trading at 50-60? What in the world are these fools talking about? Its like all the newbees trying to catch the next best thing, but I truely cannot and could not 6 weeks ago justify the current prices of so many OSX stocks. That being said, we are we heading for 160 OSX?? Thanks for any reply