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Gold/Mining/Energy : Big Dog's Boom Boom Room -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: buckbldr who wrote (38991)	2/4/2005 2:18:16 PM
From: jim_p	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 206281

Buck, PTEN's all time high is $12.45, and it has tried to rally over that four times in the last four months. My guess is it will take some fairly strong volume to close over $12.45. The good news for PTEN longs is that the volume has increased in each of the last three sessions, but it's still below average. The sector is also close to it's highs reached during the last two cycles of 141.25 and 143.97. This is a time when institutional money takes profits. Anyone who has played this sector for more than a few cycles knows the down side is very painful and the size of the sector is relatively small so when a Fidelity decides it's time to take profits the party is over very quickly. The 141.25 reached in early 1999 resulted in a low of 45.22 only nine months later, and the high of 143.97 (the last pefect storm) reached in August of 2000 resulted in a low of 58.18 a year later. So where is the risk reward this time???? Maybe 145 if you're lucky, but it won't stay there very long so don't take a nap during the day if you're still long. The smart money is selling on rallies and getting ready to short for the ride back down which always comes. Anyone who believes in buying a holding the OSX sector is a fool. Jim

To: buckbldr who wrote (38991)	2/4/2005 5:42:24 PM
From: chowder	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 206281

>>> your personal analysis as to why PTEN this a.m. is behaving so CONTRARY to the rest of the driller mkt. It absolutely defies any logical reasoning that I can apply to it. <<< You asked Brother Bum, I hope you don't mind my analysis. It's a classic technical move. The chart will clearly show that the last 5 times PTEN got above $20, it sold off to the $18 range. It's in a trading channel which indicates it's a weak performer. What you saw was profit taking off a channeling.com kind of stock. stockcharts.com[h,a]daclyiay[pb50!b20!f][vc60][iut!Lah10,30,5!Lc20]&pref=G Stocks either trend up, down or sideways. Each trend is played a different way. Stocks that trade sideways are stocks that are sold into resistance. dabum