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Gold/Mining/Energy : Big Dog's Boom Boom Room -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: buckbldr who wrote (39050)	2/7/2005 2:38:27 PM
From: Sweet Ol	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 206334

Buck, here is my TA on PTEN based on Elliott Wave theory. The horizontal trading channel of PTEN is a "flat" correction wave in EW theory. Notice that there was an ABC correction wave starting about Oct 10 and running until Nov 10. But, the C wave did not go lower than the A wave. Next it had a three week X wave up (pink line on my chart) followed by another flat ABC. The wave up that started the first week in January is the question at this point. I have charted it as wave 1 of on impulse wave up. The last two days represent the start of wave 2, which is an ABC correction that should correct 35-50% of wave 1. stockcharts.com However, wave 1 is not real nicely defined, so I see two other scenarios that could unfold. Time will tell! This current correction could be sub-wave 4 of wave 1 and we could see PTEN turn up right away and go back up in sub-wave 5 of wave 1. The second alternate scenario is that what I see as wave 1 could be another X wave and we could have another flat ABC with a slightly higher channel. OK, how do we know which scenario is the correct one. Well, if it goes back up without at least a 38.2% correction, then I would go with the first alternative, that wave 1 has not completed itself and PTEN is going to have a really big run up over the coming months. On the other hand, if the correction is significantly more than 62.8%, then I expect that the third scenario is correct and we can expect another trading range to develop. It is my observation that no TA is the end all. EW theory is very helpful to me, but it is not 100% foolproof. I also look at DABUM's averages and support-resistance lines and of course the momentum indicators, MACD, RSI and Stochastics. I am starting to pay more attention to Bum's money flows. And I listen very closely to Jim_P, Kollman, and other fundamentalists to try to outwit Mr. Market. Thanks to all of you I have doubled my net worth since I retired. (And believe me, the Social Security checks are not much help. VBG) A lot of our energy stocks are exhibiting similar patterns to PTEN, so I hope this long winded post will be generally helpful. Best to all, JRH

To: buckbldr who wrote (39050)	2/8/2005 6:25:47 AM
From: chowder	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 206334

>>> And in reference to your definitive statement above, I'd like to make a couple of comments...I know it's picky to point out, but dear ol' PTEN exceeded $20 only 4 times with a follow up retreat to $18. The 5th, last Thurs. made a new 3yr high above$20 on its close with increasing volume, and opened on the positive side Fri morning. Not to say that alone was a particularly bullish signal, but I seem to recall that when stocks make such horizontal trading channel patterns like this, that if they do break out to the upside, these patterns lend strength to the breakout move... <<< Buck, I used to think that too and sometimes they work out that way. However, the term "whipsaw" was invented to take advantage of those who bought into that theory which included me at one time. The reason why a lot of people who use TA don't outperform those who use strictly FA any better than they do is because most people don't know how to use TA to identify "high probability" trades. These are the trades that have a high probability of success but also provide minimum risks. Those who move the market are aware of the technicals. All of the brokerage houses and financial institutions have technical analysts. They know where you and I are motivated to respond. They will push the price one way to attract us and then sell into that strength. I don't buy those breakouts anymore. I wait for the pull back after it has been established that the new trading range will hold. It's a higher probability trade with less risk involved. The next price high for PTEN will be the one that provides a better reward to risk ratio or buying off of the 20 day moving average, provided one uses good stop loss guidelines. Those guidelines being that one sell if the price drops below the 50 day moving average. stockcharts.com[h,a]daclyiay[d20041108,20050208][pb50!b20!f][vc60][iut!Lah10,30,5!Lc20]&pref=G All in my opinion of course and one keeps in mind that my time frame is short term. dabum