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Strategies & Market Trends : Strictly Buy and Sell Set Ups -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: bull_derrick who wrote (2180)	2/7/2005 8:14:45 PM
From: kodiak_bull	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 13449

Derrick, We go back, what?, six or seven years here? Even before Dabum wandered over to the GW thread, you and I were having fun with PTEN and UTI. I can tell you with absolute sincerity that the single, best lesson Mr. Market has taught me in those years is to do less thinking and more observing. Less acting and more reacting. Less analysis and more acceptance. In a funny way, success in the market is the exact opposite of being successful in real life. (Sidebar: Strangely enough, success in writing fiction involves NOT solving problems for your hero with careful thought, but creating one gut-wrenching problem after another. I wake up in the morning, think things through clearly, avoid poor driving, errors in judgment, eat a well balanced lunch, work diligently at my desk, commute home safely--that's a hero in real life. In fiction I must be constantly beset by threatening circumstances and consistently make the wrong decision [for the right reasons, of course] until it takes herculean effort to save the lives of my loved ones and simply survive the day. Thus we have the 3 paradigms of life: fiction, normal life and trading life.) In application to TOL's chart the concept is gloriously simple: the-stock-is-rising. There's little else we need to know to either make money with the stock or avoid losing money with the stock in question, as a matter of disciplined trading. Here is TOL, good golly, Miss Molly, higher highs on the daily bars: stockcharts.com[h,a]daclyiay[pb50!b20!f][vc60][iut!Lah10,30,5!Lc20]&pref=G (and the weekly) stockcharts.com[h,a]waclyiay[pb50!b20!f][vc60][iut!Lah10,30,5!Lc20]&pref=G Now, there is the likelihood that TOL will re-touch its 20-day moving average, currently at about 75, but there's two ways they can "kiss": first is TOL falls back down to the 75-76 range, but the second is TOL simply lingers (or malingers, as put owners will deem it) in the low 80s. The wise thing to do now, for put holders and those in short positions is to choose an opportune spot to take a loss in buying back the former, and ditto in closing out the latter. Here is a falling stock, this is the kind of creature which presents itself as fair game for shorting and put buying: stockcharts.com[h,a]daclyiay[pb50!b20!f][vc60][iut!Lah10,30,5!Lc20]&pref=G The weekly chart makes a very good case for looking south on this name, maybe as far south as $25: stockcharts.com[h,a]waclyiay[pb50!b20!f][vc60][iut!Lah10,30,5!Lc20]&pref=G Now, as all of us consenting adults know, TOL may plunge and PHRM may skyrocket, tomorrow or the day after. But as Damon Runyon knew, that ain't the way to place your bet. Kb